One month in and QV operation manager James Wilson says 2025 is already shaping up to be an intriguing year for the housing market – though you wouldn’t necessarily know it from looking at our latest figures.

The latest QV House Price Index shows that residential property values have once again increased slightly, edging upward by an average of 1.3% nationally in the January quarter. The average home is now worth $913,567, which is just 1.3% less than the same time last year and 14.1% below the market’s peak in late 2021.

“On the surface, we’re seeing a continuation in 2025 of the overwhelmingly flat theme that we saw throughout much of last year. This is to be expected, given the economic factors at play – namely high interest rates and credit constraints, sustained weakness in the labour market, and an oversupply of properties available for sale,” Mr Wilson said.

“However, we are also seeing less home value reductions now and what little growth there is does appear to be trending ever so slightly upward. At the same time, mortgage rates are falling and property sales volumes are building, which could pave the way for more substantial growth later this year. That won’t happen overnight, of course, but we will be actively monitoring this space with interest – as I’m sure many sellers, purchasers and investors will be throughout 2025.”

Of the main urban areas QV monitors across New Zealand Aotearoa, only three have recorded modest reductions this quarter – Whangarei (-0.3%), Hastings (-0.3%), and Queenstown (-1.5%). Otherwise, Auckland (1.4%), Hamilton (2.3%), Tauranga (1.4%), Napier (2.9%), Dunedin (2.3%) and especially Invercargill (3.8%) all recorded above-average increases in home value throughout the three months to the end of January 2025.

“Value strengthening across these main urban areas throughout the summer has propped up the nationwide results to some degree, with increased competition amongst buyers helping to stabilise and slowly strengthen home values,” said Mr Wilson.

However, he pointed out that there had also been an “uptick” this year in the number of properties available for sale across most centres nationwide, providing buyers with ample choice.

“Summer is traditionally the peak season for buying and selling, so it’s unsurprising to see more buyers and sellers in the market, especially as economic circumstances improve. What will be interesting to see is how long it takes for this excess stock to be absorbed, because that’s when we will see demand start to push prices up in a more substantial way. Once again, this will not happen overnight, but further interest rate reductions will certainly quicken the process.”

“For now, the cost of borrowing remains relatively restrictive, and the economy and therefore job market is still doing it tough. Investors and owner-occupiers are showing increasing interest in the property market but remain cautious overall, while first-home buyers are continuing to make up a larger proportion of the market in the meantime,” Mr Wilson concluded.

Download a high resolution version of the latest QV value map here. (ref. https://qv.us9.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7ea78a69a1f7991bf60632008&id=1c4137c6c2&e=12a3161b1f )

Northland

It has been a relatively flat start to the year for Northland’s housing market.

Home values eased downward by 0.2% across the wider region in January. And even on a longer timescale of a quarter, home values are only 0.6% higher than they were three months ago.

The average home value in the Far North is now $686,294, which is 2.8% lower than the same time last year. In Whangarei, the average value is $716,289, which is 3% less than the same time last year. The average home in Kaipara is worth $842,269, down 1.1% over the last 12 months.

Auckland

All bar one of the Super City’s seven former local council areas recorded a small rise in average home value this quarter.

The largest gains occurred this quarter on the North Shore (2.6%), in Auckland’s central suburbs (1.8%) and in Manukau (1.8%). Papakura was the lone exception; its average home value reduced by 0.8% to $880,173.

Taken as a whole, the region’s average home value increased by 1.4% throughout the January quarter to $1,245,951 – up slightly from the 1.3% quarterly growth recorded back in December. The average home in the Auckland region is now worth 3.5% less than the same time last year, and 19.2% less than the market’s peak in late 2021. The one-month change was just 0.1%.

Local QV registered valuer Hugh Robson said activity levels still remained relatively low, despite there being a growing number of properties available for purchase.

 “January has tended to be a very quiet month, possibly due to the summer holidays. Reports from agents have been mixed – some say it is pretty dead, while others think it’s slowly picking up. We should have a better idea of the market by the end of February,” he said.

Bay of Plenty

It hasn’t been the hottest start to summer for Tauranga’s housing market.

Home values have increased by an average of just 1.4% this quarter. The city’s average home value is now $1,017,097, which is 1.1% less than the same time last year.

Meanwhile, average home values have also increased this quarter in Rotorua (0.6%), Whakatane (1%) and especially Opotiki (2.2%).

Waikato

The housing market remains flat-to-gently-rising across the wider Waikato region.

Home values have lifted by 1.2% on average this quarter, with Thames-Coromandel (3.1%), Hauraki (2.7%), Hamilton (2.1%) and South Waikato (5.9%) performing above average.

However, a number of districts have recorded average home value reductions this quarter, including Matamata-Piako (-0.2%), Waipa (-1.8%), Otorohanga (-1.5%), Waitomo (-0.1%) and Taupo (-2.1%).

Taranaki

‘Flat’ remains the best word to describe the current home value trend in Taranaki.

Although values have increased modestly across the region by 1.3% this quarter, there was no growth on average during the month of January itself.

New Plymouth’s average home value is now $720,831, which is 0.7% higher than the same time last year. South Taranaki and Stratford are both still showing negative home value growth annually of 0.3% and 2.3% respectively.

Hawke’s Bay

The twin cities of Napier and Hastings have recorded very different quarters.

The average home value increased by 2.9% to $753,155 this quarter in Napier, and it reduced by 0.3% to $771,382 this quarter in Hastings.

Annually, home values in Napier are now 1% lower on average, and they are 3.2% less than the same time last year in Hastings.

Palmerston North

Home values continue to gently rise in Palmerston North.

January marked Palmerston North’s fourth month of growth in a row. The city’s average home value increased by 1.1% this quarter to reach $638,441.

That figure is 1.1% lower than at the same time last year and 17.7% less than the local housing market’s peak three years ago.

Wairarapa

Home values have gently fallen across the Wairarapa region during the month of January.

Masterton’s average home value decreased by 1.1% to $574,342 last month. At the same time, Carterton’s average home value also decreased by 0.6% to $629,499, and the average home value in South Wairarapa reduced by 1.1% to $771,529.

Wellington

Home values remain relatively static in the Wellington region.

The average home increased in value by just 0.5% throughout the three months to the end of January 2025 to reach $841,903. That figure is now 3% lower than the same time last year, and 23% lower than the market’s peak in late 2021.

Breaking the region down by local council area, the average home values in Kapiti Coast (3%) and Hutt City (0.9%) experienced some growth this quarter. Porirua (-0.3%) and Upper Hutt (-0.6%) recorded small quarterly losses, while Wellington City broke even.

QV senior consultant David Cornford said the region continued to face challenges. “While interest rates have decreased, other market forces such as high stock levels, increasing unemployment, lower net migration, and job insecurity is resulting in a largely soft market for the time being.”

“Wellington ended the year with a significant number of unsold properties. Now we are seeing a high number of properties being brought to the market in the New Year, increasing stock levels further. This is providing buyers with plenty of choice, reaffirming the fact that it remains a buyers’ market. Buyers generally have a lack of urgency and continue to take a cautious approach in their decisions,” Mr Cornford concluded.

Nelson

Nelson’s average home value has increased slightly for four consecutive months now.

Our latest figures show that the city’s average home increased in value by 1.2% this quarter to reach $789,580, including by 1% in the month of January itself. That average value is now 2% higher than the same time last year.

It is slightly more growth than in our previous QV House Price Index, which showed values grew by an average of 0.7% in the December quarter and by 0.2% in December itself.

West Coast

Housing figures on the West Coast continue to fluctuate from month to month as a result of low sales volumes.

However, on a longer time scale of a year, it is clear to see that home values in the region continue to hold up better than anywhere else. Average home values in Buller ($390,710), Grey ($461,806), and Westland ($470,108) are now 10.5%, 12.4%, and 8.5% higher annually respectively.

This is compared to a 1.3% annual decline in average home value nationally.

Canterbury

Christchurch’s average home value has increased slightly for the fourth straight month.

The city recorded a small 1.3% rise in average home value in the January quarter to reach $769,857. That figure is now 0.6% higher than the same time last year.

The average home value also lifted 1.3% to $717,399 this quarter in Waimakariri. Hurunui ($640,980) and Selwyn’s ($842,275) average home values also recorded smaller increases of 0.2% and 0.4% respectively.

Local QV senior consultant Olivia Brownie described these latest figures as being a “blend of stability and modest growth”. “As expected, we saw a dip in sales over the holiday period, yet a slight increase in the overall average home value,” she said.

“We anticipate a bit more growth over the summer months, attributed to factors such as lower mortgage rates and increased summer buyer activity. However, we still face market challenges and balancing growth prospects with prevailing economic challenges.”

Meanwhile, across the wider Canterbury region this quarter, the average home value in Ashburton increased by 0.8% to $569,159 and decreased by 1% to $530,585 in Timaru.

Otago

Residential property values also remain relatively stable across the Otago region.

Our latest QV House Price Index shows values in the region increased on average by just 0.5% this quarter. Central Otago (3.3%) and Dunedin (2.3%) performed above average; Clutha (-2%), Waitaki (-0.3%) and Queenstown (-1.5%) performed below average.

In the region’s largest city, Dunedin, the average home value is now $651,130, following three straight months of modest growth. The average home is now worth 2.8% more than the same time last year.

“The property market in Dunedin has been relatively stable compared to other New Zealand cities, showing resilience amid broader national trends,” said local QV registered valuer Rebecca Johnston. “It’s continues to be a buyers’ market with stable – albeit minimal – growth.”

“Demand appears to have weakened for higher density new build two-bedroom townhouses within the last several months, indicating that this market is currently somewhat saturated presently in Dunedin. Developers have recently introduced two-yearly rental guarantees, which have already been established in higher density townhouse developments areas elsewhere in the country.”

Queenstown

The average home value in Queenstown has experienced another small dip.

Our latest figures show that the average value reduced by 1.5% this quarter to $1,826,298. It follows a similar reduction of 1.4% in the three months to the end of December.

However, the tourist town’s average home value is still 1.1% higher than the same time last year.

Invercargill

Invercargill’s average home value has crossed the $500,000 mark for the first time.

Our latest QV House Price Index shows that the city’s average home value has increased this quarter by 3.8% to $500,286. That figure is 7.2% higher than the same time last year and now sits 0.4% above the local market’s previous peak in 2022.

Local QV registered valuer Andrew Ronald commented: “Invercargill’s housing market continues to demonstrate surprising resilience compared to New Zealand’s other main urban areas. I credit that to the strong local economy, which has been less affected by the current strong economic headwinds, and to the relatively low cost of home ownership here by national standards.”

“Looking ahead, I expect local home values will continue to slowly grow throughout 2025, despite relatively high interest rates and credit constraints continuing to put a dampener on things in the short and medium term.”