Source: Radio New Zealand
Projections indicate the Māori population is likely to cross the million mark in 2033. RNZ
Around 932,000 people, or 18 percent of people living in Aotearoa, identified as Māori as at 30 June 2025, according to estimates released by Stats NZ.
The latest projections indicate the Māori population is likely to cross the million mark and increase to between 1.02 million and 1.09m in 2033.
Ethnicity is the ethnic group or groups that people identify with or feel they belong to. Ethnicity is a self-determined cultural affiliation, as opposed to race, ancestry, nationality or citizenship, according to Stats NZ.
Ethnicity differs from the population of Māori descent, which is based on whakapapa, a person might acknowledge they are of Māori descent but choose not to identify as Māori. The latest estimated resident population of Māori descent was 1,036,000 at 30 June 2023.
Stats NZ population and housing spokesperson Sean Broughton said people of Māori ethnicity were projected to make up around 20 percent of New Zealand’s population in 2048.
“Our Māori ethnic population is growing at a faster rate than Aotearoa New Zealand’s population overall, mainly because of higher-than-average birth rates combined with a younger age structure.”
Māori births averaged about 17,000 a year between 2012 and 2025. The projections indicate that Māori births could exceed 19,000 a year by the late 2030s, as children born since 2000 reach childbearing age.
Inter-ethnic partnering also plays an important role in the growth of the Māori population. About one-quarter of Māori births are from non-Māori mothers with Māori fathers.
“Identifying with multiple ethnicities is common for Māori. Children and parents of Māori ethnicity will often identify with other ethnicities,” Broughton said.
In the 2023 Census, 59 percent of the Māori ethnic population identified with other ethnicities (up from 44 percent in the 2001 Census):
- 53 percent identified with European ethnicities (40 percent in 2001)
- 11 percent identified with Pacific ethnicities (6 percent in 2001)
- 2 percent identified with Asian ethnicities (1 percent in 2001)
- 0.4 percent identified with Middle Eastern / Latin American / African ethnicities (0.2 percent in 2001)
Death, migration and an ageing population
There were almost 5000 Māori deaths in the June 2025 year. Like deaths for all other ethnic groups, Māori deaths are projected to gradually increase as more people reach older ages.
Net migration is likely to reduce the Māori ethnic population, with migrant departures assumed to exceed migrant arrivals in most years.
“However, net migration losses will be more than offset by assumed net gains from inter-ethnic mobility, with more people identifying with Māori ethnicity over time,” Broughton said.
Despite having a youthful population, the projections indicate a gradual ageing of the Māori ethnic population.
The Māori ethnic population aged 65 years and over is likely to more than double from 75,000 in 2025 to around 180,000 in 2048. The population in the older working ages, 40 to 64 years, is also likely to grow significantly, from 230,000 in 2025 to around 370,000 in 2048.
As a result of the faster growth at older ages, the median age of the Māori ethnic population is likely to increase to about 35 years in 2048, compared with 28 years in 2025.
The median age of the total New Zealand population is likely to increase to about 43 years in 2048, compared with 38 years in 2025.
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
