Source: Cotality
New Zealand’s property market remains largely stable heading into summer, with modest movements in values and continued strength in buyer participation from some groups, particularly in light of record first home buyers entering the market and renewed investor activity.
The Cotality NZ November Monthly Housing Chart Pack shows national median property values remained broadly unchanged over the three months to October, edging 0.1% lower and sitting 17.3% below the 2022 peak. Christchurch and Dunedin recorded modest gains, while Auckland dipped 1.0%. Invercargill reached a new high, underscoring the relative resilience of provincial markets.
Cotality NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson said the possibility of a capital gains tax (CGT) announced by Labour last month has prompted discussion at a time when market activity is steady rather than strong.
Labour has confirmed it will campaign on a CGT at the next election, with the policy exempting the family home and applying to gains on residential investment and commercial property from a new valuation day in 2027. Gains made before that valuation date would fall outside the system.
“The timing of Labour’s proposal is interesting. The market is getting busier but remains a touch below normal, affordability has improved, and investor participation is on the rise. Against that backdrop, the CGT debate naturally raises questions about behaviour, whether investors would hold properties longer to try and avoid the tax for a while, and how much revenue a tax might realistically generate,” Mr Davidson said.
“Labour’s proposal is for a 28% tax on net profit from the sale of residential investments or commercial property from July 2027, excluding the family home, farms, and financial assets. From a market perspective, timing and assumptions are important considerations. For such a system to collect meaningful revenue, property values would need to rise, yet recent years have seen only modest growth. Our data shows national median values up 10% since five years ago in October 2020.”
Stable conditions support cautious optimism
While national figures show value growth has been subdued, first home buyer activity remains highly active, accounting for a record 29% of purchases in October.
Lower interest rates and the reinstatement of mortgage interest deductibility has helped support mortgaged multiple property owners, including rental investors, who also lifted their share to just over 25% of transactions in the last month.
“The predictability of current conditions is reassuring for buyers, who are continuing to adjust to the recent experience of stable prices and slightly lower mortgage rates,” Mr Davidson said.
“With affordability gradually improving and employment conditions set to strengthen next year, there’s a growing sense of cautious optimism, even if the recovery will be measured rather than sharp. Debt to income ratio caps are a key factor to watch.”
Sales and listings
Sales volumes continued their upwards trajectory, rising by around 6% in October (compared to the same month last year), marking the 28th rise in the past 30 months from the 2022–23 cyclical trough. Mr Davidson said with more households repricing onto lower mortgage rates over the next year, further growth in sales activity remains likely.
New listings also lifted through the middle of spring, pushing fresh stock onto the market, as per normal seasonal patterns. However, the rise in available listings was largely absorbed by the lift in sales, leaving total stock about 12% lower than the same time last year, albeit still sitting above levels seen between 2020 and 2023 for the time of year.
Outlook
Mr Davidson’s short-term outlook is that 2026 could bring firmer market conditions as lower interest rates work their way through household budgets.
“Affordability is at its best level in several years, listings are set to ease lower, and a large share of fixed loans are shifting onto cheaper rates. Provided employment holds up, those factors point to a gradual lift in both sales activity and values next year,” he said.
“We’ll be watching the final months of the year closely, as they will show whether the steady rise in sales is strong enough to keep absorbing the normal seasonal lift in new listings.”
The Cotality NZ Monthly Housing Chart Pack, November 2025 provides the latest breakdown of sales, listings, mortgage lending activity, buyer classification, property values, rental trends, and economic indicators, alongside updated context on how current median values relate to the proposed CGT policy.
