Source: Earth Sciences New Zealand
Earth Sciences New Zealand’s Seasonal Climate Outlook for May to July 2026 is attached.
Highlights
-Temperatures are expected to be about average for the time of year, with some areas below average. We’ll need to watch for cold snaps and frosts when high pressure sticks around.
-Overall rainfall is leaning to be potentially lower than normal for most, but it’s likely the impacts of dryness won’t be apparent until later in the season.
-The tropical Pacific continues to progress towards El Niño. There’s about a 65% chance these conditions will form during this period and peak in summer 2026-27. El Niño can have wide impacts (see https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/our-forecasters-winter-2026-may-see-start-formidable-el-nino-event).