Source: EMA Media Release
New Zealand businesses are already changing behaviour in response to the global fuel disruption, not because fuel has run out, but because confidence is waning.
New survey evidence from the EMA shows employers are reacting to rising prices, volatility and uncertainty well ahead of any widespread disruption to physical fuel supplies, with many already anticipating reduced activity, delayed investment and slower hiring.
“Right now, businesses are reacting less to physical shortages and more to the loss of confidence caused by volatility, headline risk and rising costs,” says Alan McDonald, EMA Head of Advocacy and Strategy.
“That loss of confidence matters. It’s influencing decisions about staffing, production and investment today – even though in many cases the supply impacts themselves haven’t arrived yet.”
The EMA Fuel Disruption Survey found that while more than three-quarters of respondents say they are not yet experiencing difficulty securing fuel or petroleum products, expectations of disruption are building rapidly.
Over half of businesses anticipate impacts within the next one to three months, and most expect some form of operational effect as the situation evolves.
Cost pressure is already evident. Nearly three-quarters of surveyed businesses report being notified of rising non-fuel input costs, with many indicating they are likely to raise prices as a result. For employers, this is compounding existing inflation pressures and forcing difficult trade-offs.
“What’s coming through clearly is that businesses are preparing for disruption – pulling back, building in caution and reassessing plans. Some responses to members telling customers they may raise prices have been very blunt,” McDonald says.
“That anticipation alone is enough to slow economic activity. Firms need to trust what they’re seeing or hearing, or they stop making forward-looking decisions.”
McDonald says the survey underscores the importance of a steady, coordinated government response that reinforces confidence and enables businesses to plan.
“So far, I think we’re seeing that but in situations like this, confidence is an economic input,” he says.
“Clear communication about fuel resilience, contingency planning and policy settings can make a real difference. Businesses don’t expect the government to control global events, but they do need confidence that New Zealand is prepared and that policy responses will support stability.”
The EMA says the survey results would inform ongoing engagement with MBIE and other agencies, providing real-time insight into how employers are responding as conditions evolve.
“Employers aren’t waiting for disruption to be visible before they act,” McDonald says. “They’re acting now – and that makes having confidence critical.”
See the EMA Fuel Disruption survey here: https://ema.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/EMA-Fuel-Pulse-Check-Survey.pdf
In addition, the EMA has developed the EMA Fuel Monitor – a regularly updated hub that brings together official government updates, EMA insights and media coverage to help members stay informed. The EMA Fuel Monitor is available here: https://dailyfuelmonitor.co.nz/
