Source: Cotality
Property values in Aotearoa New Zealand edged up by 0.2% in October, the second modest rise in a row, according to Cotality NZ’s latest hedonic Home Value Index (HVI). Values had previously ticked up by a minor 0.1% in September, after five consecutive falls over April to August, with the national median now sitting at $811,662.
Across the main centres, Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland fell again (-0.2%), with Kirikiriroa Hamilton flat in October. Tauranga and Te Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington both lifted by 0.2%, while Ōtautahi Christchurch (0.4%) and Ōtepoti Dunedin were stronger (0.7%).
Cotality NZ Chief Property Economist, Kelvin Davidson, said that the second consecutive lift in property values may signal the early stages of a market recovery. However, he emphasised the importance of maintaining a measured outlook.
“It’s a cliché, but upturns obviously have to start somewhere, and the recent emergence of small increases in property values would certainly be consistent with the falls in mortgage rates over the past year or so.”
“That being said, sentiment remains tilted to the cautious end of the spectrum, and of course, the economy and labour market are still subdued. Meanwhile, the gains in September and October were clearly reasonably small in the grand scheme of things.”
He pointed out that one notable shift in credit policy in recent weeks has been the announcement on 14 October that the loan to value ratio rules are set to ease from 1 December.
“That may possibly benefit investors a bit more than owner-occupiers, although the potential scope for more pre-approvals for low equity loans could bolster first home buyers.”
“We’ve seen in the past that banks tend to act early on these rule changes, so the effects may start to show through even as soon as the release of October’s mortgage lending stats in late November.”
“Meanwhile, it’s still very early days for Labour’s capital gains tax policy, given of course it won’t mean much if they don’t get into power. One lesson from other countries is that CGT doesn’t stop house price growth, although this policy proposal does add to the general sense that property returns in future could be a touch less than in the past.
Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland
Over the past 12 months, the super-city has seen a -2.0% drop in values, reflecting weakness in North Shore, Auckland City, and Manukau – which combined account for almost 70% of all dwellings in Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland.
Compared to the previous peak, the falls across Tāmaki Makaurau continue to range from around -20% down to -25%.
“The stock of available listings across the super-city has eased downwards this year, potentially lessening buyers’ pricing power to a degree. But the new-build pipeline remains active. And several economic sentiment indicators or surveys for Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland are still subdued, and this cautious mood is clearly pervading the property market too,” Mr Davidson noted.
Te Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington
It was also a mixed bag for the wider Te Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington area in October, with Te Awa Kairangi ki Tai Lower Hutt seeing property values fall by -0.4%, and Porirua down by -0.2%. However, the other sub-markets were either flat or higher, with Wellington City itself seeing a 0.5% increase.
That said, the falls from peak remain significant across the region, ranging from around -23% in Kāpiti Coast and Porirua, to -26% in Te Awa Kairangi ki Tai Lower Hutt.
“Te Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington is another area where the stock of available listings has drifted lower this year. But the market still remains in favour of buyers, with plenty of choice out there. The subdued state of the Wellington economy and muted confidence both remain a factor in its sluggish housing market too. That said, the hints of growth in Wellington City could be something to watch in the next few months.”
Property market outlook
Looking ahead, Mr Davidson noted: “There’ll obviously be a lot of focus on the Reserve Bank’s final OCR decision for the year on 26th November, which at this stage looks likely to be a 0.25% drop. This, however, could mark the end of the cuts in this cycle.”
“If so, it’ll then be a case of judging how these effects are eventually filtering through to the economy, consumer spending, and the housing market.”
“With mortgage rates already having fallen a long way, housing affordability more favourable, listings down a bit, and the economy set to improve, 2026 looks likely to see a rise in both property sales activity and house prices.”
“However, would-be buyers may not necessarily need to be too concerned about falling behind. After all, with the stock of housing having risen in recent years relative to population, and debt to income ratio caps also now in action, only a modest rise in prices of perhaps 5% or less seems more likely than a fresh boom.”
“Prospective buyers, whether that’s owner-occupiers or investors, will also no doubt be pleased that values remain around 17% below their early 2022 peak – with some likely to be viewing this as a strong opportunity to snap up ‘bargains’ at what might prove to be the low point for the market,” Davidson concluded.
