Housing Market – Conditions broaden out but don’t expect a property boom

Cotality NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson said given the weakness of the economy and labour market, a strong lift in prices is hard to envisage in the near-term, though there are some signs of conditions shifting.
“With affordability returning back closer to normal levels, listing volumes starting to decline, mortgage rate falls increasingly passing through to existing borrowers as they reprice onto lower rates, and the unemployment rate set to fall a bit next year, conditions seem to be building for modest house price growth in 2026 – but don’t expect a boom.”

Affordable pockets see strongest house gains

Over the three months to September, 56% of suburbs (1,484 of 2,661) recorded declines in standalone house values, though around two-fifths of those areas had only marginal falls, at less than 1%. Put another way, 33% of suburbs saw house values drop at least 1%. In contrast, 44% of suburbs saw values rise or remain flat.

Across the main centres, declines of nearly 4% for houses were recorded in Auckland suburbs including Takapuna and Clevedon. Meanwhile, modest increases of at least 2-3% were seen in suburbs such as Evansdale (Dunedin), Cashmere (Christchurch), Matua (Tauranga), and Makara (Wellington).
Despite the broader softness, some affordable areas of the market recorded the strongest gains of more than 5% in the three months to September, including Cobden (Grey District), Springs Junction (Buller), and Alton (South Taranaki), where the median house value ranged from $325,000-$409,000.
 
Townhouse falls tilt towards North Island

There were similar results across New Zealand flats and townhouses. Over the three months to September, 54% of suburbs (579 of 1,080) recorded declines in townhouse and flat values (most of which fell by at least 1%), while 46% saw values rise or remain flat.

The steepest declines for townhouses with falls of at least 5% were more common in lower-priced regions and in the North Island, including Otangarei in Whangarei, Taihape, Inglewood, and Paihia in Far North.
Despite this, 19 suburbs posted strong median townhouse value gains of 5% or more. These areas were spread both geographically and across value tiers including Queenstown Hill, Brighton (Dunedin), Whangarei (suburb), and Huntington (Hamilton).

Muted picture of growth ahead

Mr Davidson said that slightly more suburbs saw value drops over the September quarter, highlighting the ongoing variability across the market.

 “There’s clearly still patchiness in the market, but this fits with the overall picture that national median values have drifted slightly lower in recent months.”

“While it’s difficult to generalise across the various trends at a suburb level, there is certainly some resilience among standalone houses and townhouses in lower priced areas, which will tend to have affordability on their side.”
“Overall, property values remain sluggish for now, but conditions may be turning towards some growth in 2026, albeit likely muted,” he concluded.
 
Explore the full interactive tool here: www.cotality.com/nz/our-data/mapping-market

ABOUT MAPPING THE MARKET

The Mapping the Market tool continues to be one of the most detailed resources for tracking suburb-level value movements by property type across New Zealand.
 
The September edition of Mapping the Market offers a valuable lens into the local dynamics shaping housing markets across New Zealand.