Covering period of Monday 24 – Friday 28 February 2025 – Settled weather characterised by light winds, clear skies, warm days, and low amounts of rainfall continues over Aotearoa New Zealand this week due to a persistent area of high pressure lying over the country. The only disturbance in the flow comes in the form of a rainband moving up the western South Island on Tuesday, and MetService has issued a Heavy Rain Watch for northern Fiordland and the ranges of the Westland District.
The incoming rain band moves onto southern Fiordland Monday evening, with the Heavy Rain Watch covering the 13-hour period from 7am Tuesday. It has been an abnormally dry start to the year for the western South Island, with Milford Sound recording only ~20% of its usual rainfall for this time of the year. The rain weakens notably before it reaches the lower North Island early Wednesday morning, and ahead of the rain, warm northwesterly winds will give daytime temperatures a small bump up on Tuesday, but a closely following southerly wind will drop them back down on Wednesday.
MetService Meteorologist Clare O’Connor advises, “The uneventful weather is good news for anyone attending or performing at Te Matatini Festival in New Plymouth this week. Other than the chance of brief rain on Wednesday evening, dry and mostly sunny conditions are forecast so don’t forget to slip, slop, slap, and wrap while enjoying the day”.
Similar conditions are expected over the whole country for the remainder of the week, before the next rainband approaches the south closer to the weekend.
While settled weather is the story of the week here in Aotearoa, the tropics have had a burst of activity. Two tropical cyclones were named on Sunday evening: Tropical Cyclone Alfred in the Coral Sea, monitored by Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, and Tropical Cyclone Rae which lies north of Fiji and is monitored by the Fiji Meteorological Service. A third area of interest between Vanuatu and Fiji may also develop into a tropical cyclone over the coming days.
While none of these are expected to impact New Zealand, MetService’s tropical cyclone forecasters are always keeping a close eye on the tropics at this time of the year.
