Keith Rankin’s Chart for this Month: Crisis Postponed
Chart for this Month: Crisis Postponed By Keith Rankin Another financial crisis coming? Graphic by Keith Rankin. There will almost certainly be another major financial crisis, just like there will be another big earthquake (or, as the Australians would instead say, another big bushfire). We can do much to improve our monitoring of systemic stresses, […]
Read More →Keith Rankin’s Chart for this Month: Slowly Increasing Teachers’ Earnings
Keith Rankin’s Chart for this Month: Slowly Increasing Teachers’ Earnings Another catch-up coming? Chart by Keith Rankin. This month’s chart uses a correctly proportioned (logarithmic) scale to compare the growth of the average hourly price of labour in Education/Training and miscellaneous Professional Services with wage growth across ‘all industries’ (bearing in mind that most workers […]
Read More →Keith Rankin’s Chart for this Month: Allocation of New Zealand’s GDP under Economic Capitalism
Keith Rankin’s Chart for this Month: Allocation of New Zealand’s GDP under Economic Capitalism Chart: Public hemisphere; nearly half of the pie. Chart by Keith Rankin. This month’s chart looks at New Zealand’s 2017-18 GDP (of $288 billion). The chart uses official data, with appropriate re-accounting, as presented to this year’s New Zealand Association of […]
Read More →Keith Rankin Analysis – Liberal Mercantilism and Economic Capitalism: an Introduction
Keith Rankin Analysis – Liberal Mercantilism and Economic Capitalism: an Introduction Keith Rankin. Most of us realise that there is something wrong with capitalism as we know it. We also accept that capitalism is here to stay; the only practicable alternatives are evolutions of capitalism, not from capitalism. For most of its history we have experienced […]
Read More →Keith Rankin’s Chart for this Month: New Zealand Economic Growth from 1978, Decade by Decade
Keith Rankin’s Chart for this Month: New Zealand Economic Growth from 1978, Decade by Decade New Zealand economic growth by decade. Graph by Keith Rankin. This month’s chart shows New Zealand’s economic growth (annual percentage increase of GDP, rolling annual averages) over four separate ten-year periods, overlayed. There are some indications of a ten-year cycle. For […]
Read More →Keith Rankin’s Chart for this Month: Ages at Death, New Zealand 1957 and 2017
Chart for this Month: Ages at Death, New Zealand 1957 and 2017 Analysis by Keith Rankin. Older Population, Higher Life Expectancy. Chart by Keith Rankin. This month’s chart (a comparative histogram) shows the impact – of both an aging population and rising life expectancy – on ages at death. The percentages shown basically represent the […]
Read More →Keith Rankin Analysis – The Government’s new ‘Employment’ Contract
Keith Rankin Analysis – The Government’s new ‘Employment’ Contract Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Keith Rankin. The government has got it badly wrong with the new Policy Targets Agreement, its contract with the Reserve Bank about monetary policy. Perhaps inadvertently, the emphasis is now on maximising employment, not living standards. Maximising employment is not the […]
Read More →Keith Rankin analysis: Chart for this Month – Correcting Regional Population Estimates
Chart for this Month: Correcting Regional Population Estimates Analysis by Keith Rankin. Census: Reality replacing projection. Graphic by Keith Rankin. Regional population estimates are unreliable. The government should know (and publish) reliable quarterly population data for the country as a whole, and accurate breakdowns by age and sex. All that is required is birth and […]
Read More →Keith Rankin Analysis: Will we keep living longer?
Will we keep living longer? – Analysis by Keith Rankin. Watch the middle-age males. Graph by Keith Rankin. A recent Economist article (Life Expectancy in America, 4 January) notes that actuarially-calculated life expectancy in the USA has fallen for the second year in a row. This is no surprise to me; nor will it be to […]
Read More →Keith Rankin Analysis: Chart for this Month – 2020 Election – Change or No Change?
Keith Rankin Analysis: Chart for this Month – 2020 Election – Change or No Change? Who’s the winner? (Chart by Keith Rankin). With the political season having started already, and speculation already rife about the Opposition leadership, it’s timely to check out this distinctly possible scenario for the next election, in 2020. The chart shows […]
Read More →Keith Rankin Analysis: The Next Economic Correction
The Next Economic Correction By Keith Rankin. Keith Rankin. In September I published a chart showing that, over a century-and-a-half, economic growth has been lower in years ending with an ‘8’. It’s suggestive of a fundamental capitalist cycle that repeats around every 10 years. The 10-year cycle has a name, the Juglar Cycle. In 2008 […]
Read More →Keith Rankin Analysis: Public Equity and Tax Benefit Reform
Keith Rankin Analysis: Public Equity and Tax Benefit Reform Public Equity and Tax-Benefit Reform, The Policy Observatory, AUT, 13 December 2017. Keith Rankin. Public Equity is not a difficult concept to understand. Equity is about ownership. And equity is about equality. Equal owners own what they own equally. Two equal owners of a house own […]
Read More →Keith Rankin Analysis: Chart for this Month: The Public Debt League
Chart for this Month: The Public Debt League – Analysis by Keith Rankin. Is this New Zealand’s biggest problem? (Graph by Keith Rankin.) The new government claims to have solutions to our many social and economic problems. Yet it persists with the view that reducing public debt takes priority over any of these problems. Seems to […]
Read More →Keith Rankin Analysis: Chart for this Month: Leisure by Selected Age Groups
Keith Rankin Analysis: Chart for this Month: Leisure by Selected Age Groups Rejection of Leisure by Older Kiwis. Graph by Keith Rankin. Once upon a time we regarded market-work as a necessary evil, and we anticipated a future reward, in the form of a leisure-dividend. From the 1850s to the 1970s, the idea of a […]
Read More →Keith Rankin Analysis: A Century of New Zealand Elections
MIL Analysis+Reportage – EveningReport.NZ Keith Rankin Analysis: A Century of New Zealand Elections Governments and their popular support. Graph by Keith Rankin. In 2017, the popular vote for the parties supporting the government is just over 50 percent – as it has always been since proportional representation was introduced 1996. Before 1996 it was another […]
Read More →Keith Rankin Analysis: Migration within New Zealand: Evidence from the Election
MIL Analysis+Reportage – EveningReport.NZ Keith Rankin Analysis: Migration within New Zealand: Evidence from the Election Flight to the Fringe. Chart by Keith Rankin. New Zealand does not have reliable regional population statistics. The intercensal estimates that Statistics New Zealand publish are based on the extrapolation of trends that existed before the most recent census; in […]
Read More →Keith Rankin Analysis – Auckland Population: Evidence from the Election
MIL Analysis+Reportage – EveningReport.NZ Keith Rankin Analysis – Auckland Population: Evidence from the Election Drift South? Graphic by Keith Rankin. Last year I wrote that there is no evidence of disproportionate population growth in Auckland, and even suggested that a number of central Auckland suburbs may be experiencing population decline. (See Immigration, and Immigration and […]
Read More →Keith Rankin Analysis: Election Day versus Advance Voting
MIL Analysis+Reportage – EveningReport.NZ Keith Rankin Analysis: Election Day versus Advance Voting The Left votes early. Graphic by Keith Rankin. With half of the preliminary (ie non-special) votes being cast before election day 2017, we can glean a clear view about which parties’ supporters are more likely or less likely to vote early. This week’s […]
Read More →Analysis by Keith Rankin – Correcting the Polls
MIL Analysis+Reportage – EveningReport.NZ Analysis by Keith Rankin – Correcting the Polls Watch the ‘Undecideds’. In the Scoop report of the most recent (16-19 Sep) Colmar Brunton political poll, we see the numbers adding up to 112.3%. This innumerate reporting – a result of Colmar Brunton’s own reporting method – represents one of the biggest […]
Read More →Keith Rankin Analysis: New Zealand’s Cyclical Growth Contractions
MIL Analysis+Reportage – EveningReport.NZ Keith Rankin Analysis: New Zealand’s Cyclical Growth Contractions Eight Down. In 1939, Joseph Schumpeter published his magnum opus, Business Cycles. He emphasised three growth cycles, Kitchin (about every three years), Juglar (about every decade) and Kondratiev (about five decades). Of interest to us at present is the Juglar Cycle, with its […]
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