Source: Energy Resources Aotearoa
Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE) data published today shows estimates for New Zealand’s natural gas reserves continue to decline, and Energy Resources Aotearoa Chief Executive John Carnegie says it’s time for government to go all in on supporting Kiwi petroleum production.
There has been a 23 per cent year-on-year reduction in natural gas reserves, dropping to 731 petajoules (PJ) as at 1 January 2026 (from 948 as at 1 January 2025), which is slightly less than the 27 per cent decrease in the previous year.
Carnegie says this reduction shows the hangover of ill-conceived policies that saw investor flight and strangled investment in new exploration.
“New Zealand has been left with a headache of market volatility, escalating prices and pressure on businesses and consumers that rely on natural gas.
Our energy system now faces critical shortages that threaten the security and affordability of gas and electricity and the viability of many gas users.
Yesterday, the Prime Minister said energy independence must be treated as an immediate national security interest – we couldn’t agree more.
Every PJ reduction is the equivalent of powering 40,000 average kiwi homes. The build-out of renewable alternatives, including biomethane, is great, but it can’t keep pace with this reduction.”
The reserves data show the urgency of now moving beyond simply reopening our petroleum basins to actively encouraging investors to explore, Carnegie says.
“In an increasingly unpredictable geopolitical environment, a vibrant petroleum sector under the right conditions can move New Zealand beyond a short-term focus on economic survival to underwriting our future economic prosperity in the same way countries like Norway have.”
The downward trend in reserves for the Big-6 fields, which together accounted for 98 per cent of 2025 gas supply, was predicted. Carnegie says this is a function of being mature late-life fields.
“Reductions in reserves were partly offset by an upward revision at the Mangahewa field, where successful drilling enabled some contingent resources to be promoted to reserves.
As Maui is approaching the end of its productive life, its future reserves are zero, but no final decisions have been made regarding the timing of its closure.”
Carnegie says that once myth-making is put aside, increased domestic natural gas supply is likely to be the best option to fill New Zealand’s energy gap, with LNG providing the necessary back-up.
“There are positive signs that the industry is reopening, with four new permit applications and proposed company acquisitions signalling a return of investor confidence.
The suite of Government policies designed to build confidence and promote investment in the sector, including the removal of the ban and the $200 million Gas Security Fund, is working – but revitalisation will take time and consistent policy settings.
Gas has a future in New Zealand, and New Zealand needs gas to have a future. It has been the backbone of our energy system for years, and will continue to have a critical role for many years to come if we back it.”