Post

Property Market – Steady as she goes: property values plateau while uncertainty lingers – QV

Property Market – Steady as she goes: property values plateau while uncertainty lingers – QV
Source: Quality Valuation (QV)

Residential property values continue to hold steady amid growing economic and political uncertainty.

Our latest QV House Price Index, out now, shows the average value nationally has grown by 0.2% this quarter to $912,406. That figure is now just 0.3% higher than it was at the start of this calendar year and 0.2% lower than the same time last year.

It follows a remarkably flat start to the year, in which average home values remained static in January, dipped by 0.1% in February, were static again in March, and then grew by just 0.3% in April.

QV spokesperson Simon Petersen said these figures reflected the current mood of the market. “The housing market is essentially in a holding pattern at the moment, with no real sense of urgency from either buyers or sellers, just an abundance of caution,” he said.

“People are having to take a more measured approach given the circumstances. Interest rates are always a key consideration and there’s also a high degree of restraint given the broader economic backdrop, which includes cost of living pressures, geopolitical uncertainty, and a general election looming later this year.”

“With very little to suggest that home value growth will suddenly take off anytime soon, or that conditions will drastically improve, it’s likely that most buyers will continue to take their sweet time, shop around, and wait for the right opportunity. This is especially true while there continues to be no shortage of listings available,” he added.

In Aotearoa’s largest cities, the average home value reduced in Auckland and Wellington by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively this quarter and increased by 0.9% in Christchurch. Of these three, only the latter’s average home value is now higher than it was at the same time one year ago.

Meanwhile, the South Island has continued to outperform the North Island in terms of home value growth, with just Nelson (-1.1%) recording a small reduction this quarter across the main urban areas we monitor on the Mainland.

“Bunking the general flatness trend, certain pockets of the property market have carried some relatively modest momentum through the first four months of 2026, particularly in Canterbury, Otago, Southland, and on the West Coast,” Mr Petersen said.

“That said, we’re now heading into late autumn now, when activity does typically start to slow down a bit, and that’s likely to keep levels of home value growth relatively subdued at best.”

“Looking at the rest of the year ahead, much will depend on what happens to interest rates and how broader economic conditions continue to evolve. But the most likely scenario in the shorter term is a continuation of the steady, balanced market we’ve seen so far this year,” Mr Petersen concluded.

Northland

Home values continue to inch up and down across the Northland region without conviction.

Our latest QV House Price Index shows that home values increased by an average of 1.3% across the wider region throughout the three months to the end of April 2026 – reversing a 0.4% decrease in the March quarter and a 0.2% decrease in the February quarter.

Much of the growth was in Kaipara this quarter, where the average home value increased by 3% to $856,228. The average home value also increased by 2.1% to $710,170 in the Far North and by 0.3% to $735,257 in Whangarei.

On an annualised basis, the average home value in Whangarei is now 0.5% lower than the same time last year. It is 3.7% and 3.8% higher in the Far North and Kaipara districts respectively.

Auckland

Residential property values continue to tread water across the Auckland region, though supply and activity remain steady.

Just one of the Super City’s former local council areas posted a modestly positive result this quarter, with property values in Auckland City increasing by just 0.4% to $1,377,388.

Rodney District maintained its average home value at $1,255,807, while North Shore (-1.1%), Waitakere (-1%), Manukau (-0.3%), Papakura (-0.6%), and Franklin (-0.2%) all recorded minor reductions in average home value.

At $1,199,957, the Auckland region’s average home value is now worth 2.8% less than the same time last year and 0.3% less than at the start of this calendar year.
Local QV registered valuer Hugh Robson said conditions remained steady.

“There’s a good supply of stock and steady activity from buyers, who are being cautious for the most part and doing their due diligence before making any commitments. Real estate agents are also reporting quite good numbers at open homes and auctions,” he said.

“First-home buyers make up a large portion of the market at present, but there is also steady activity in the $2m-plus bracket, with even a slight increase in activity from investors in recent times.”

Bay of Plenty

There were small pockets of growth across the Bay of Plenty region this quarter.

The average home value increased across the wider region by 0.9% to $903,962 throughout the three months to the end of April, with Gisborne (3%), Western Bay of Plenty (1.4%) and Rotorua (1.8%) once again leading the way.

In Tauranga, the average home value increased by 1% to $1,045,217 this quarter, which is now 3% higher than the same time last year. That is well above the national average of 0.2% growth this quarter and a 0.2% reduction annually.

“Autumn has continued to show encouraging signs across the Bay of Plenty,” said local QV registered valuer Damian Hall.

“While the market has stabilised overall, some areas are performing better than others. Mount Maunganui remains tightly held, while Papamoa continues to be popular with younger families and those approaching or in retirement.

“Good quality properties are generally selling well, particularly at the more affordable end of the market, while more average stock is taking longer to move and, in some cases, selling at a discount.”

Mr Hall said there were still a number of headwinds to consider. “While fuel prices have eased slightly in recent months, the full impact on supply chains and the wider economy may still be to come. At the same time, the high cost of living continues to put pressure on households, and the upcoming general election is likely to keep some buyers cautious.

“Despite this, the modest momentum seen so far this year does highlight a degree of resilience in the local property market, which is encouraging as we head into the cooler months.”

Waikato

Waikato’s average home value was practically cemented into place this quarter, recording no growth up or down throughout the three months to the end of April.

In Hamilton, the average home value reduced by just 0.1% to $792,110, which is a slightly smaller decrease than the 0.6% reduction recorded throughout the three months to the end of February and also March 2026.

On an annualised basis, the average home in Hamilton is now worth precisely the same as this time last year.

Hawke’s Bay

Home values have moved very little in Napier and Hastings this quarter.

The average home value remained flat at $753,364 in the former and increased by 0.4% to $776,034 in the latter, according to our latest QV House Price Index.

Napier’s average home value is now 0.9% lower than it was 12 months ago, while Hastings’ average home value is now 0.3% higher. Values have increased at a faster rate annually in Central Hawke’s Bay (1%) and especially Wairoa (5.8%).

Taranaki

Home value growth has been modest at best in the Taranaki region this quarter.

Stratford recorded no growth this quarter – its average home value remained steady at $500,566 – while South Taranaki’s average home value increased by 1.8% to $463,987 throughout the three months to the end of April.

In New Plymouth, the average home is now worth $720,255, following a small 0.5% increase in the April quarter.

Manawatu

Property values have eased downward again in Palmerston North.

Our latest QV House Price Index shows that the city’s average home value decreased by 0.9% to $631,848 throughout the three months to the end of April 2026. That figure is now 0.4% lower than the same time last year.

Meanwhile, home values are 1.2% lower across the wider region this quarter, and 0.6% lower on average annually.  

Wellington

Home values have inched downward across the Wellington region – with one exception this quarter.

Our latest QV House Price Index shows Porirua’s average home value grew by 0.6% to $803,174 throughout the three months to the end of April, while Kapiti (-0.1%), Upper Hutt (-1.1%), Lower Hutt (-1.1%) and Wellington (-0.1%) all recorded small average reductions.
Local QV registered valuer David Cornford said market activity had slowed in April, most likely in response to the ongoing fuel crisis and flow-on economic implications.

“Values have tracked more or less sideways over the last few months while buyers have been taking a cautious approach due to uncertainty in the economy and cost of living pressures,” he said.

“Now there is the potential for interest rates to rise sooner than the market expected. This combined with softer economic conditions due to the ongoing Middle East conflict may have a dampening effect on the property market over the coming months – especially if the conflict drags on.”

Nelson/Tasman/Marlborough

Residential property values increased by an average of 1.8% in Marlborough this quarter.

Conditions were even more subdued elsewhere across the top of the South Island, with home values decreasing by an average of 1.1% in Nelson. At $778,674, the city’s average home value is now 2.6% lower than the same time 12 months ago.

Our latest QV House Price Index also recorded a marginal 0.2% reduction in Tasman, where the average home value is now $827,755. That figure is also 0.2% lower than the same time last year.

QV Nelson/Marlborough manager Craig Russell commented: “Values have softened slightly in recent months as the market continues to feel the effects of a weaker economy, with households still facing ongoing cost-of-living pressures.”

He said the number of properties available for sale remained high.

“Higher-value properties, particularly lifestyle blocks above the $1,300,000 price bracket, are proving more difficult to sell.

“In many cases, vendor expectations are still not fully aligned with current market conditions, which is contributing to listings sitting on the market for longer periods. These properties are either having numerous price reductions or end up being withdrawn from the market as owners hold out for prices that are more in line with 2021 levels.”

West Coast

The housing market remains relatively steady on the West Coast.

Our latest QV House Price Index shows home values across the wider region have increased by 4.5% this quarter and are now 7.2% higher than the same time last year.

Of the three districts that make up the region, Westland District recorded an increase for the three-month period of 6.1%, an average value of $522,117, and a 10.8% increase from 12 months ago.

Grey District recorded an increase for the three-month period of 0.8%, an average value of $476,016, and a 6.9% increase from 12 months ago.

The Buller District is showing an increase of 9.2% for the three-month period, an average value of $393,249, and a 4.6% increase from 12 months ago.

Local QV registered valuer Rod Thornton commented: “The index over the past few months has fluctuated somewhat with some periods showing declines followed by increases, but we would characterise the market overall as steady.

“Statistics should be interpreted with some care in regions like the West Coast, as sales volumes tend to be lower here and there is a wide mix of housing types, locations, price points and value drivers that can cause fluctuations – including if a disproportionate number of higher or lower value properties sell in a given period.”

Canterbury

Home values remain flat or gently rising across most of the Canterbury region despite ongoing economic and geopolitical headwinds.

Our latest QV House Price Index shows the average property value increased this quarter by 0.2% nationally and 0.9% regionally, with Hurunui (1.7%), Waimakariri (1.4%) and Ashburton (1.4%) recording above-average growth.

In the Garden City, the average home value increased by 0.9% to $800,844. That figure is now 3.1% higher than the same time last year.
QV South Island professional services manager Michael Tohill said Canterbury’s property market had remained resilient so far in 2026.

“Christchurch remains buoyant despite the war in the Middle East, fuel price hikes and inflationary pressures. The market has remained very active with good levels of sales and auction clearance rates,” he said.

“The Selwyn and Waimakariri districts also remain active, with strong levels of building activity and steady demand for new housing continuing across a number of major developments,” Mr Tohill said.

“Ashburton has also seen consistent new-build activity, with builders generally reporting solid workloads through the remainder of 2026.”

However, he said there were still some challenges emerging beneath the surface.

“The multi-unit sector in Christchurch remains steady for now, though the volume of developments currently underway or in planning could eventually create some oversupply concerns,” he said.

“Commercial activity across Canterbury has also remained relatively strong this year, although leasing conditions in parts of the industrial and retail sectors have been more challenging over the past 12 months.”

Looking ahead, Mr Tohill said there remained some uncertainty heading into winter, with higher interest rates predicted, as well as ongoing inflationary and cost-of-living pressures.

Otago

Home value growth remains slow and steady across much of the Otago region.

Central Otago was the pick of the districts this month, with its average home increasing in value by 3.3% to $914,914 in the April quarter. Queenstown was the next strongest performer; its average home increased by 2.2% to $1,937,823.

In Dunedin, the average home value increased by 0.5% to $656,574. That figure is now 1.6% higher than the same time last year.

Southland

It’s been a positive start to the year in terms of home value growth in the Southland region.

The average home value grew by 2.5% to $545,033 this quarter and is now worth 9.2% more than the same time last year.

Invercargill has performed even more strongly. Its average home value increased by 3% to $548,747 throughout the three months to the end of April and has increased by 9.5% annually.
You can check value changes over time in your region with QV’s interactive map on www.qv.co.nz/price-index/

The QV HPI uses a rolling three month collection of sales data, based on sales agreement date. This has always been the case and ensures a large sample of sales data is used to measure value change over time. Having agent and non-agent sales included in the index provides a comprehensive measure of property value change over the longer term.

MIL OSI