Upwards of 200mm of rain could fall when Cyclone Vaianu hits North Island

Source: Radio New Zealand

Upwards of 200mm of rain could fall in 18-24 hours in some areas when Cyclone Vaianu makes its way over the North Island, according to Chris Brandolino of Earth Sciences.

Exactly where the centre of the storm will pass is yet to be determined, but Brandolino told RNZ it was likely to be somewhere in the zone “east of Auckland down toward the Eastern Bay of Plenty.”

Brandolino said he was focused on where the centre will pass because on the eastern side of the centre is where the biggest “wind-impacts” will be.

“Where that centre travels is quite critical because if it moves further west, i.e. over the mainland North Island, then those higher winds can cover more real estate. If the centre of the ex-tropical cyclone moves farther east, then everything too is shifted further east.”

Along with high winds, Brandolino said an intense amount of rain will fall.

“There will be a lot of rain in those areas, 100, 150 maybe upwards of 200 millimetres of rain that’s going to fall on very wet soils and it’s going to fall in a very short period of time. We’re talking within 18 to 24 hours, so that speaks to the rain intensity.”

But Brandolino cautioned the impacts will also be felt outside of that area.

“But I do think areas from the eastern part of the North Island, the upper North Island, they appear to be most likely to receive the highest impacts such as strong wind, damaging wind, very heavy rainfall, large ocean seas, and large swells.”

Brandolino also said high tides could cause damage during the storm, and to watch for coastal erosion and coastal inundation.

Another area of concern for Brandolino was heavy rain and wind on already wet soil.

“The wind coming from an unusual direction, likely to be the northeast to southeast in that sort of corridor, at least for a while or initially. Those high wind gusts coming from a somewhat unusual wind direction on top of wet soils, that does heighten the odds for impacts such as power cuts, tree damage, things like that.”

Brandolino said while there were some similarities with Cyclone Gabrielle, Vaianu has not interacted with another weather system, as Gabrielle did, and the system is moving much faster.

North Island authorities get ready for Cyclone Vaianu

Authorities across the North Island are preparing for a potentially life-threatening storm that could cause flooding, power cuts, slips and road closures leaving communities cut off.

Cyclone Vaianu is currently forecast to reach Northland late on Saturday night then spread across the rest of the island – but the fast moving storm should clear on Monday, MetService said.

Update on TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU

The Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre at MetService is keeping a close eye on Tropical Cyclone Vaianu as it makes it way towards New Zealand.

It is expected to make landfall on the northeast coast of New Zealand at approximately midday on… pic.twitter.com/2jWloToB5N

— MetService NZ (@MetService) April 9, 2026

MetService has put the entire North Island under a strong wind watch on Sunday, while heavy rain watches are in place for much of the top and middle of the North Island starting late on Saturday.

The agency was still working out which regions would bear the brunt of the weather, but it was “highly likely” that the current wind and rain watches would be upgraded to warnings, it said.

“The combination of damaging winds, heavy rain and coastal inundation makes this a multi-hazard, potentially life-threatening event.

“The locations of the most severe impacts associated with Cyclone Vaianu, such as power outages, falling trees, flooding, slips, road closures and isolated communities are highly dependent on the cyclone’s track.”

Warnings Update – TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU

Strong Wind Watches for the North Island (Sat – Mon)
Heavy Rain Watches for the North Island (Sat – Sun)

As clarity in the forecast increases, it is highly likely that Severe Weather Warnings for both severe… pic.twitter.com/AnhpOychsh

— MetService NZ (@MetService) April 8, 2026

MetService urged people to keep an eye on the forecast.

Civil Defence, council officials, lifeline utilities and emergency services were closely monitoring the cyclone and preparing for its potential impact.

Gisborne Mayor Rehette Stoltz said people should make the most of having a couple of days’ warning to plan ahead.

She encouraged people to look out for whānau and neighbours, and stock up on supplies including enough food for a couple of days in case they were cut off.

There was “unease and worry” in the community, she said.

“I think we are all sleeping with one eye open the next 24 hours until we know which way this cyclone is going to come.”

Land in the region was already unstable, and State Highway 2 in the Waioweka Gorge south of Ōpōtiki was blocked off following a slip.

Further south, Wairoa Mayor Craig Little said the town was hoping for the best and preparing for the worst, which could including being “lone soldiers”, cut off from Gisborne to the north and the rest of Hawke’s Bay to the south.

Hawke’s Bay Regional Council opened the Tukituki river mouth, Nūhaka river mouth and Waihoratuna lagoon mouth as a precaution, and was monitoring other river mouths including maintaining the Wairoa bar.

Tauranga City Council said it had set up a response team to assess the situation and carry out routine checks.

A spokesperson said it had been a challenging start to the year with multiple bouts of extreme weather, and people may be feeling unsettled.

Whakatāne District Council said it was closely monitoring Cyclone Vaianu and emergency response planning had been activated.

Whakatāne District local controller Nicholas Woodley said while there was still uncertainty around the cyclone’s exact path, the message was clear: prepare now.

Council crews were already responding to the effects of 24 hours of heavy rain including downed trees and surface flooding, he said.

“We are dealing with two things at once,” Woodley said in a statement.

“There’s the immediate impact of the current wet weather, and the need to plan ahead for what Cyclone Vaianu could bring on top of that. That combination increases the likelihood of impacts escalating quickly.”

Prepare a ‘no power plan’, lines company says

Lines company Powerco was putting extra crews on standby, said its head of network operations Mark Dunn.

“It’s important to remember though, that in severe weather events it takes time to reconnect all customers affected by outages.

“This is because it’s dangerous for our crews to climb poles in high winds so, for their safety, they may not be able to fix faults until the weather calms.”

Road closures and downed trees could also make it difficult for crews to reach and assess damaged equipment, he said.

For that reason, people should come up with their “no power plan”, said Dunn.

That included charging devices, having spare batteries and torches, a supply of emergency water, and topping up gas for barbecues or camp stoves.

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand