Source: Radio New Zealand
If you’ve been hanging out for 2026 to be the year in which it gets a bit easier to go to the supermarket, you might be disappointed.
Infometrics has released its latest grocery supplier cost index, which tracks what suppliers charge Foodstuffs supermarkets.
It shows an average 2.4 percent increase in what was charged in December compared to a year earlier.
“The usual summer cost change moratorium limits the number of cost changes over December and January, with only more seasonal and perishable items seeing movement,” Infometrics chief executive Brad Olsen said.
Moratoriums are used to minimise system changes during peak trading periods, helping to reduce disruption for customers over the holidays.
“Higher seasonal supply saw some produce costs decline, while costs rose for some specific items, including potatoes and kiwifruit. Limited protein supply globally has continued to keep meat and seafood costs higher, but rising global milk supply has helped lower costs for milk, butter, and other dairy items.”
Olsen said supplier costs made up about two-thirds of the shelf price that shoppers paid.
Supplier costs rose across departments year-on-year in December, apart from a small fall in service deli.
“Larger cost increases for protein earlier in 2025 saw seafood and butchery costs rise the most, up 4.6 percent per annum over 2025. A pull-back in dairy costs moderated the rise in the chilled foods department to 2.5 percent.
“Higher costs for some fruits and vegetables, particularly potatoes, grapes, kiwifruit, and salads, pushed produce department costs up 2 percent per annum at the end of 2025.”
Olsen said food price rises had been quite targeted in 2025.
“The question for this year is less in a sense ‘will there be food price pressures’ and more, ‘will there be really intense food price pressures in certain areas?’
“By that I mean, will we see any relief globally in terms of protein costs? You’ve still seen the likes of beef and lamb that has been increasing significantly off the back of more limited supply of meat around the world – and here in New Zealand, to be fair. That’s been pushing up those prices. There’s nothing out there that suggests to me that the pressure is going to go away any time soon.”
He said people would be watching dairy prices closely, too, given the increases recorded last year.
“Dairy prices in general have pulled back quite a bit in the last couple of months.”
Some price rises, such as an increase in kiwifruit, were potentially good for the economy if they helped exporters.
“Barring any large changes, you’d be hoping that you’re not seeing as much headline-grabbing coming from food prices in 2026. But people will still, I think, naturally be quite focused on shopping either seasonally or trying to find the right way to structure their household budgets and their family meal planning because those cost increases have been so intense.
“I know looking through the supermarket myself, that it’s definitely more affordable to be buying pork or chicken than it is to be buying beef or lamb at the moment.”
Stats NZ will report on overall food prices on Friday.
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
