Source: The New Zealand Treasury
Thursday, 6 November 2025 – The Interim Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand for the three months ended 30 September 2025 were released by the Treasury today. The September results are reported against forecasts based on the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2025 (BEFU 2025), published on 22 May 2025, and the results for the same period for the previous year.
The key fiscal indicators for the three months ended 30 September 2025 were mixed compared to forecast. The Government’s main operating indicator, the operating balance before gains and losses excluding ACC (OBEGALx), showed a deficit of $4.0 billion. This deficit was $0.5 billion larger than forecast. Whereas net core Crown debt was lower than forecast by $5.2 billion at $184.7 billion, or 42.3% of GDP.
Core Crown tax revenue, at $29.1 billion, was $0.5 billion (1.6%) lower than forecast. The largest variances related to other individuals’ tax and source deductions at $0.3 billion (12.1%) and $0.1 billion (1.0%) lower than forecast respectively.
Core Crown expenses, at $36.4 billion, were in line with forecast.
The OBEGALx was a deficit of $4.0 billion, $0.5 billion more than the forecast deficit. When including the revenue and expenses of ACC, the OBEGAL deficit was $4.1 billion, $0.2 billion higher than the forecast deficit.
The operating balance surplus of $0.8 billion was better than the forecast deficit of $2.4 billion. The variance in OBEGAL mentioned above was more than offset by valuation movements, particularly on financial instruments. Net gains on financial instruments were $4.9 billion stronger than forecast, driven by New Zealand Superannuation Fund (NZS Fund) and ACC’s investment portfolio reflecting favourable market conditions. However, this was partially offset by net losses on non-financial instruments of $1.5 billion, largely owing to the net actuarial loss on the ACC outstanding claims liability of $1.7 billion.
The core Crown residual cash deficit of $1.4 billion was $1.6 billion lower than forecast. While net operating cash outflows were $0.9 billion higher than forecast, net core Crown capital cash outflows were $2.6 billion lower than forecast. The net core Crown capital cashflows variance to forecast was largely driven by lower than forecast net purchase of investments.
Net core Crown debt at $184.7 billion (42.3% of GDP) was $5.2 billion lower than forecast. The variance was driven by the combination of the favourable variance in net core Crown debt at 30 June 2025 which resulted in a better starting position for the current year, along with the lower than forecast residual cash deficit during the year, as mentioned above.
Gross debt at $213.2 billion (48.9% of GDP) was $7.9 billion lower than forecast. Similarly with net core Crown debt, the majority of this variance comes from a more favourable starting position. The remaining variance predominately relates to lower than forecast issuances of Euro Commercial Paper.
Net worth at $190.0 billion (43.6% of GDP) was $9.4 billion favourable to forecast. In addition to the operating balance variance discussed above, the better net worth starting position from the 30 June 2025 year also contributed.
