Source: ASB
- Bay of Plenty tops ASB’s Regional Economic Scoreboard for the first time in nearly a decade.
- Signs of growth and improved confidence shift Auckland into top half of Scoreboard.
- Strong commodity prices lift Southland into second place.
Bay of Plenty has soared up the rankings to claim the top spot in ASB’s Regional Economic Scoreboard for the June 2025 quarter. The region’s strong performance was driven by a standout kiwifruit season, resilient employment growth, and rising consumer confidence.
Southland and Otago rounded out the top three spots, continuing the South Island’s economic dominance over the past year. Meanwhile, Wellington fell to the bottom of the rankings, weighed down by weak consumer sentiment and ongoing public sector restructuring.
The Scoreboard ranks New Zealand’s 16 regions across key indicators including employment, retail trade, house prices, and consumer confidence. This quarter’s results show rural regions outperforming urban centres, with commodity prices and primary sector strength driving momentum.
“It’s fair to say kiwifruit has brought home the trophy,” says ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley. “A strong season has boosted incomes in the Bay, supporting improvements across employment, retail, and housing.”
“The Bay’s labour market has shown impressive resilience, even as nationwide conditions remain subdued. With employment growth holding steady and optimism rising, the Bay is set for continued momentum.”
Regional highlights
- Bay of Plenty has New Zealand’s highest consumer sentiment, solid employment growth (up 3.2%, ranked second), and strong house sales (up 25.8%), despite a slight dip in construction activity.
- Southland jumped from eighth to second place this quarter, buoyed by strong commodity prices and a resilient housing market, with house prices rising 3.4% and sales up 32%.
- Otago maintained third place, supported by tourism and retail strength, though construction and housing indicators softened.
- Auckland climbed five places to rank fifth, showing signs of recovery across retail and improving consumer sentiment.
- Wellington dropped to last with house prices falling 3.3% and consumer confidence low.
“Auckland showed promising signs of life in the June quarter,” says Nick. “Strong population growth and more confident consumers helped lift activity across housing, retail and construction, pushing the City of Sails up five places to rank fifth.”
“While there’s pockets of pain, particularly around employment and house sales, the region is beginning to show the resilience we expect from the country’s largest economic centre.”
National trends
- Retail trade volumes rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, with annual growth at 2.3%.
- House sales increased 3.5% quarter-on-quarter, though selling times remain longer than pre-COVID norms.
- Export volumes declined 3.7% over the quarter, reflecting global headwinds and the impact of new US tariffs on NZ goods.
- Net migration continued to ease, with inflows at their lowest since November 2022.
“We’re seeing small pockets of warmth in what’s otherwise an economically chilly quarter,” says Nick. “Retail spending is holding up, and consumer confidence is showing signs of life. That’s encouraging as we head into the second half of the year.”
While inflation edged up to 2.7% and unemployment rose to 5.2%, ASB notes signs of resilience in household spending and sentiment.
Looking ahead
“The new 15% US tariffs imposed on NZ goods are expected to weigh slightly on the country’s economic recovery, but the full impact remains to be watched. Meanwhile, with a further 25bp cut to the OCR in August and an additional 50bp signalled by the RBNZ, we expect improvements are on the horizon, even if the pace is slower than initially projected.”
The full ASB Regional Economic Scoreboard, along with other recent ASB reports covering a range of commentary, can be accessed at our ASB Economic Insights page: https://www.asb.co.nz/documents/economic-insights.html
Latest ASB Regional Economic Scoreboard
|
|
Q2 2025 |
Q1 2025 |
|
Bay of Plenty |
1 |
10 = |
|
Southland |
2 |
8 |
|
Otago |
3 |
3 |
|
Canterbury |
4 |
1 |
|
Auckland |
5 |
10 = |
|
Waikato |
6 |
5 |
|
West Coast |
7 |
2 |
|
Nelson |
8 |
6 |
|
Marlborough |
9 |
4 |
|
Tasman |
10 |
8 |
|
Manawatu-Whanganui |
11 |
7 |
|
Gisborne |
12 = |
16 |
|
Hawke’s Bay |
12 = |
14 |
|
Northland |
14 |
13 |
|
Taranaki |
15 |
12 |
|
Wellington |
16 |
15 |
About the ASB Regional Economic Scoreboard
The NZ Regional Economic Scoreboard takes the latest quarterly regional statistics and ranks the economic performance of New Zealand’s 16 Regional Council areas. The fastest growing regions gain the highest ratings, and a good performance by the national economy raises the ratings of all regions. Ratings are updated every three months, and are based on 8 measures, including population, employment, retail trade, house prices, house sales, construction, consumer confidence, and new car registration.
