The Interim Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand for the eleven months ended 31 May 2025 were released by the Treasury today. The May results are reported against forecasts based on the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2025 (BEFU 2025), published on 22 May 2025, and the results for the same period for the previous year.
The majority of the key fiscal indicators for the eleven months ended 31 May 2025 were slightly better than forecast. The Government’s main operating indicator, the operating balance before gains and losses excluding ACC (OBEGALx), showed a deficit of $7.9 billion. This was $0.2 billion smaller than forecast. While the core Crown results were favourable to forecast this was largely offset by weaker results from State-owned Enterprises. Net core Crown debt was close to forecast at $180.3 billion, or 41.8% of GDP.
Core Crown tax revenue, at $111.2 billion, was $0.6 billion (0.6%) higher than forecast. The largest variances related to corporate tax at $0.7 billion (4.4%) above forecast and other individuals’ tax at $0.3 billion (3.2%) higher than forecast, which were partially offset by lower than forecast GST revenue of $0.2 billion (0.6%) and other direct tax revenue of $0.1 billion (3.0%).
Core Crown expenses, at $128.7 billion, were $0.3 billion (0.2%) above forecast.
The OBEGALx was a deficit of $7.9 billion, $0.2 billion less than the forecast deficit. When including the revenue and expenses of ACC, the OBEGAL deficit was $12.3 billion, $0.2 billion lower than the forecast deficit.
The operating balance deficit of $3.9 billion was close to the $4.1 billion forecast deficit. This reflected both the slightly favourable OBEGAL result, and offsetting valuation movements. Net gains on financial instruments were $1.8 billion lower than forecast, driven by New Zealand Superannuation Fund (NZS Fund) and ACC’s investment portfolio. The majority of this unfavourable variance was offset by net gains on non-financial instruments being $1.6 billion higher than the forecast loss. This was largely owing to the net actuarial gain on the ACC outstanding claims liability being $1.3 billion higher than forecast.
The core Crown residual cash deficit of $4.9 billion was $0.4 billion lower than forecast. While net operating cash outflows were $0.5 billion higher than forecast, net core Crown capital cash outflows were $0.9 billion lower than forecast.
Net core Crown debt at $180.3 billion (41.8% of GDP) was broadly in line with forecast. The favourable residual cash position was partially offset by non-cash items, contributing to the net core Crown debt result.
Gross debt at $202.5 billion (47.0% of GDP) was $7.2 billion lower than forecast, largely owing to lower than forecast derivatives in loss and issuances of Euro Commercial Paper.
Net worth at $184.3 billion (42.7% of GDP) was broadly in line with forecast largely reflecting the year-to-date operating balance result as well as movements in reserves.
| Year to date | Full Year | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 Actual1 $m |
May 2025 BEFU 2025 Forecast1 $m |
Variance2 BEFU 2025 $m |
Variance BEFU 2025 % |
June 2025 BEFU 2025 Forecast3 $m |
|
| Core Crown tax revenue | 111,172 | 110,558 | 614 | 0.6 | 120,894 |
| Core Crown revenue | 122,839 | 122,255 | 584 | 0.5 | 134,188 |
| Core Crown expenses | 128,706 | 128,418 | (288) | (0.2) | 142,207 |
| Core Crown residual cash | (4,876) | (5,323) | 447 | 8.4 | (9,990) |
| Net core Crown debt4 | 180,310 | 180,430 | 120 | 0.1 | 185,644 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 41.8% | 41.9% | 42.7% | ||
| Gross debt | 202,522 | 209,688 | 7,166 | 3.4 | 209,999 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 47.0% | 48.6% | 48.3% | ||
| OBEGAL excluding ACC (OBEGALx) | (7,909) | (8,125) | 216 | 2.7 | (10,175) |
| OBEGAL | (12,263) | (12,465) | 202 | 1.6 | (14,740) |
| Operating balance (excluding minority interests) | (3,911) | (4,121) | 210 | 5.1 | (5,493) |
| Net worth | 184,259 | 184,440 | (181) | (0.1) | 183,130 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 42.7% | 42.8% | 42.1% | ||
- Using the most recently published GDP (for the year ended 31 March 2025) of $431,038 million (Source: Stats NZ).
- Favourable variances against forecast have a positive sign and unfavourable variances against forecast have a negative sign.
- Using BEFU 2025 forecast GDP for the year ending 30 June 2025 of $435,148 million (Source: The Treasury).
- Net core Crown debt excludes the NZS Fund and core Crown advances. Net core Crown debt may fluctuate during the year largely reflecting the timing of tax receipts.
