Source: New Zealand Government
Good evening, everyone. Thank you to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs for the invitation to deliver this year’s annual lecture. It’s a pleasure to be here.
I would like to acknowledge NZIIA Patron and former Governor General Sir Anand Satyanand, members of the diplomatic corps, distinguished guests. I would also like to acknowledge the outgoing members of the NZIIA Board, Dr James Kember and Suzannah Jessep and new board members Rosemary Banks and Dr Julia Macdonald.
The NZIIA has been asking hard questions about New Zealand’s place in the world for over seventy years. Tonight those questions are as relevant as at any point in that history.
I want to start with a simple observation. New Zealand is a trading nation. Not in the casual sense that politicians invoke when they want to sound economic – but fundamentally, and structurally.
One in four jobs in this country depends on our ability to sell to the world. A quarter of our GDP is generated offshore. We know that exporters pay higher wages at home and are more productive than domestically focused firms. We are geographically remote, domestically small, and globally dependent. That is not a problem to be solved. It is the defining condition of our economic prosperity.
And the system that has underwritten that economic life – the rules-based international trading order – is under more pressure than at any time since it was constructed after the Second World War.
The Global Trade Landscape
Two developments in the past twelve months have made that pressure acute.
The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted global supply chains in ways our exporters are feeling directly. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz – which carries around 20% of the world’s daily oil supply – has driven up fuel costs and made getting products to market harder and more expensive.
The ceasefire is welcome, but the situation remains fragile, and the impacts on our exporters are real. They are navigating challenges with sourcing key inputs, maintaining competitiveness in the face of rising production and distribution costs, and finding reliable routes to market.
And even before that conflict, our exporters were already navigating a fundamentally changed approach to tariff policy from the United States. And the US is not the only one. Just ask our dairy exporters to Canada. The major economies really are playing outside the rules with very sharp elbows. These shifts are the clearest signal yet of a broader global trend: we are moving from a world governed by shared rules to one increasingly shaped by power.
For a small trading nation, that shift matters more than it does for many other countries.
I want to be clear about the stakes. Our exports rose 11.8% last year in 2025 – growth that happened because Kiwi exporters are world class and consumers will pay a premium for what we produce. That is a remarkable achievement in a difficult environment.
But it is not an achievement we can take for granted. It depends on continued access to markets, continued investment in relationships, and a continued commitment to the rules that provide certainty and transparency and enable our exporters to compete on a level playing field.
Tonight I want to talk about how this Government is responding to that challenge. Not reactively. Not defensively. But with a clear plan. Our plan has three parts:
• shoring up and creating new rules that underpin our trade.
• building resilience so our exporters can weather disruption.
• and innovating – because in a world where the old rules are contested, New Zealand has to earn its seat at the table.
Shoring Up Trade Rules
For a small trading nation like New Zealand, the rules-based system has always mattered more to us than it does to the large economies that can apply asymmetrical bilateral leverage.
Kiwis believe in fairness and the rules deliver exactly that. They level the playing field. They give our exporters the certainty, the transparency, and the market access that no amount of diplomatic relationship-building can substitute for.
It is worth remembering that despite everything, 72% of world trade still takes place under WTO rules. The system is battered. But it is not broken – and New Zealand has a clear national interest in saving as much of the multilateral furniture as possible.
That said, we are pragmatic. Progress at a multilateral level moves slowly. Too slowly for our exporters, who need better and certain access now. Which is why this Government has invested heavily in free trade agreements – the bilateral and regional deals that lock in the access we need and provide certainty that WTO processes alone cannot deliver.
FTAs
In 2025, 71% of New Zealand’s exports were covered by 17 high-quality FTAs. That is not an accident. It reflects a sustained, deliberate investment in trade architecture over 25 years – and this Government has moved faster and further than any that came before.
The results are tangible. Since our EU FTA entered into force in May 2024, New Zealand’s exports to the EU have grown by NZ$3 billion. Our exports to the UK grew 13% in the year to December 2025, following the conclusion of our UK FTA.
Our exports to the UAE have seen record growth of 33% following that agreement’s entry into force.
And we have now concluded a deal with India – the world’s soon-to-be third largest economy, with 1.4 billion people and within the next 5 years a middle class of 700 million. That’s greater than the entire population of the EU or ASEAN.
When our Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) agreement enters into force, 75% of New Zealand’s exports will be covered by FTAs. These are not theoretical gains. These are the binding international treaties that are the building blocks of long-term prosperity for New Zealand.
Shoring up trade rules is not only about securing new FTAs – equally important is investing in existing FTAs to make sure they continue to deliver for the evolving needs of our exporters. This means upgrading and expanding these FTAs. We upgrade them by negotiating new rules to meet the new issues and challenges our traders are grappling with – for example last year an upgrade negotiation for Asean- Australia New Zealand FTA (AANZFTA) was informed by the COVID supply shock experience and delivered outcomes which make trade of essential goods easier and more efficient during times of crises.
We are working energetically to expand our plurilateral FTAs through accession negotiations. This brings more economies within the umbrella of FTA rules our exporters rely on and provides new preferential market access. CPTPP already consists of 12 economies that represent around 16% of global GDP, and we have concluded accession negotiations with Costa Rica, with an ever-growing list of countries queueing up to join.
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is the world’s biggest FTA globally by population and total GDP, and we are working to expand it further including into important markets where New Zealand does not currently have FTAs, such as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.
WTO
These agreements will continue to be an essential component of New Zealand’s economic resilience strategy. And we will continue to prioritise the WTO which provides the foundation for the global system of trade rules that matters so much to New Zealand.
But let me be direct about the WTO. The 14th WTO Ministerial Conference in Cameroon was deeply disappointing. And I say this as the Vice Chair of the Conference and as the facilitator for the negotiations on reform.
The absence of multilateral outcomes – extending WTO reform, on the e-commerce moratorium, on agriculture and fish subsidies – reflected the entrenched positions of major economies unwilling to compromise. That is a real setback, and we should not pretend otherwise.
New Zealand will not walk away. We will continue to be a constructive, pragmatic broker. We will continue to push on agricultural trade reform, harmful fisheries subsidies, trade-distorting industrial policy, and digital trade rules. Because in a world shifting from rules to power, every institution we can support and every norm we can embed makes New Zealand safer. The alternative – abandoning the multilateral system – is not an option for a country like ours. And we will invest in the institution. I am delighted that the 165 WTO members have endorsed the appointment of the New Zealand Ambassador to Geneva to lead the WTO peak body, the General Council.
Building Resilience
Trade rules alone are not enough. Our second pillar is resilience – the ability to keep New Zealand’s trade flowing when the system is under stress. I see our resilience agenda through three lenses: engagement with our exporters, diversification in our international relationships, and the unglamorous but high-value and critical work of removing non-tariff barriers.
Engaging our exporters
When the US tariff announcements hit, we moved immediately to get real-time information out to exporters and to hear from them directly. We have run regular, well-attended webinars since then. And MFAT’s website contains 754 market intelligence reports for New Zealand traders.
I have already done five India FTA roadshows around the country over the past few months with more to come. Getting out and hearing from our exporters and the public – not just in Auckland and Wellington, but across the regions – is one of the most valuable things I do as a Minister. It shapes our priorities and it builds trust.
We will continue to prioritise this kind of engagement, particularly in the current tumultuous environment. Kiwi exporters have shown time and again that they are resourceful and resilient. Our job is to make sure they have the information, the access, and the support they need to make the most of the opportunities we have secured for them.
Take for example an ice cream company that established a New Zealand and Asian plastic packaging supply chain following COVID 19. Given the low stocks, they are now exploring how cardboard could be used instead.
Investing in relationships
This Government has prioritised both investing in our partnerships and diversifying our trade relationships. This has included more international visits than any previous government in a parliamentary term to build and strengthen New Zealand’s relationships with key partners.
Trade missions are about opening doors for New Zealand exporters – helping them build relationships, understand markets, and turn opportunities into real contracts, and the trade missions we’ve achieved to date have helped deliver over 200 commercial outcomes valued at more than NZ$2 billion. Those are not just numbers. They represent new connections, new contracts, and new confidence for Kiwi businesses in markets they might not have entered alone.
Our Saudi Arabia mission is a good example. We unlocked five commercial deals worth over $100 million. The 21 businesses who came with us opened doors in premium food, technology, services, construction, and the creative industries. Those doors opened because we showed up. We invested in the relationship, and we demonstrated that New Zealand is a serious partner.
Our relationship with Singapore tells a similar story. New Zealand’s original trade agreement with Singapore was one of our first. We have invested in that relationship for over two decades. And that investment recently produced something genuinely new – the world’s first Agreement on Trade in Essential Supplies, designed specifically to keep essential goods moving in times of crisis. It delivers better fuel predictability for New Zealand and food security for Singapore.
It only became possible because we had built the relationship long before we needed it.
Not only have we prioritised engagement with our long-standing partnerships – such as Australia and the EU- but we are also future-proofing our trade resilience through diversification, which can help open alternative markets and sources of supplies.
This is why we saw the China market as a good opportunity back in 2008 – when no other developed country had an FTA with China. China is now New Zealand’s largest export market and the value of our exports to China has soared from between $2 to $3 billion to around $23 billion per annum.
Another approach we have taken to strengthening partnerships is through our leverage of CPTPP to establish formal dialogues with the EU and ASEAN – something the PM and I have prioritised in these challenging times. This provides a valuable opportunity for large trade blocs (with the EU and CPTPP representing a third of global trade) to move on issues that are currently paralysed at the WTO.
And our partnerships with the Pacific, through the PACER Plus agreement, are essential to the prosperity and resilience of our region. That is why our government, alongside Australia, has invested NZD 38 million in Aid for Trade initiatives that strengthen countries’ trade capacity under the agreement.
I will also continue to strengthen relationships with Pacific Island Countries that have yet to join PACER Plus, including Fiji, because regional economic integration through trade makes us all more resilient.
Removing non-tariff barriers
Our relationships are also critical to resolve many of New Zealand’s non-tariff barriers (NTBs) – from certification requirements, labelling rules, testing regimes, to environmental regulations – these issues slow growth.
NTBs currently affect almost NZ$9 billion worth of New Zealand’s exports across more than 50 markets, and this government is committed to finding solutions.
Last year alone, we resolved NTBs affecting around $600 million of exports. Some examples include unlocking access to China’s $200 million cosmetics and skincare market, signing and implementing a deer velvet arrangement with China providing market growth worth $64.5 million in the year to December 2024, and expanding access for New Zealand dairy products and blueberries to Korea worth $5 to $10 million, and $5 million, respectively.
We are also progressing a new plurilateral arrangement with like-minded partners to tackle NTBs in third markets cooperatively. This work does not generate headlines. But it directly affects whether Kiwi exporters can compete.
Innovation: Securing Our Seat at the Table
Our third pillar is innovation. I have heard the phrase: “New Zealand needs the world to trade, but the world doesn’t need New Zealand.” That just means we have to earn our place. And innovation is how we do that.
New Zealand has a record of bringing trade ideas to the world that larger countries haven’t thought of yet. The Digital Economy Partnership Agreement – DEPA – is a clear example. New Zealand, Singapore, and Chile created the world’s first standalone digital economy agreement, covering everything from business facilitation and digital trust through to AI and digital inclusion. The Republic of Korea has since joined. Costa Rica and Peru are seeking membership. That agreement started as an idea from three small, like-minded countries, and it is now shaping the architecture of global digital trade.
Similarly, we are working to maximise the commercial value of indigenous business connection through the Indigenous Peoples Economic and Trade Cooperation Arrangement (IPECTA).
Our leadership in institutions like APEC, the OECD, and the Small Advanced Economies’ Initiative has gradually found its way into the hard rules of agreements like CPTPP. That is how small countries shape the world.
We are building on that legacy with the Green Economy Partnership Agreement. Working with Chile and Singapore, GEPA will make the green transition easier for producers, exporters, and investors, and position Kiwi businesses to compete in a global green economy projected to be worth US$11 trillion by 2040.
And through the Future of Investment and Trade Partnership – FIT-P – New Zealand is working with 16 like-minded, trade-dependent economies with a global reach ranging from Norway to Rwanda to Malaysia. Our approach is to cooperate on practical solutions for supply chains, paperless trade, non-tariff barriers, and trade-distorting subsidies. This initiative came about when I got together with trade colleagues from Switzerland, Singapore and the UAE. We knew we needed to find a way to support each other, reinforce the rules-based system, and work together to create new rules that give our traders more certainty.
Most recently at MC14, Eleven FIT-P members released a Joint Statement on maintaining open and resilient supply chains given the impact on global trade of the Middle East conflict. New Zealand and these FIT partners have committed to working together to identify disruptions to the trade of essential goods and exchanging information on how we will approach and mitigate these.
I will host my fellow trade ministers at the next FIT-P Ministerial in Auckland later this year. That is a leadership role, and we intend to use it to find new ways to support our exporters and their jobs, incomes and productivity in New Zealand.
The Long Game
Our goal is ambitious: to double the value of New Zealand’s exports in ten years. That requires growth in trade relationships – but it also requires growth in investment.
New Zealand is well below the OECD average for foreign direct investment as a share of GDP. That gap has a direct cost in productivity and wages. That is why this Government established InvestNZ – New Zealand’s first dedicated foreign investment agency – to attract more capital into sectors with the highest growth potential: renewable energy, technology, data infrastructure, advanced manufacturing. More capital means higher productivity. Higher productivity means better wages for New Zealanders.
And we are also seeing our export base diversify in ways that are genuinely exciting. Technology, commercial services, and education are growing fast. Companies like Auror – which exports retail crime prevention software to Australia, the UK, and North America – and Halter, exporting high-tech livestock management solutions globally, are proving that New Zealand innovation can compete anywhere. These are exactly the kinds of businesses we want to see more of, in more markets, with more support behind them.
We also want to venture deeper into global markets that are bursting with opportunities – like Latin America, which is fast becoming a key growth market for New Zealand exporters, with our exports to the region rising by 41% since 2021.
This Government has already started making inroads – the Minister of Foreign Affairs led a Parliamentary and large business delegation to Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay earlier this year to strengthen our partnerships, deepen our people-to-people links, and boost our profile.
The visit was a huge success, with a range of New Zealand exporters announcing new commercial agreements with companies in Argentina – fostering connections, and growing partnerships.
We’re also exploring additional markets in Asia and looking at opportunities in Africa. Diversification is not just an economic strategy – it is insurance.
Conclusion
Let me finish with this.
The world New Zealand trades in today is harder and much more uncertain than the one we were trading in five years ago. The rules are more contested. The relationships are more complex. The disruptions are more frequent. I do not expect that to change anytime soon.
But this is not a new challenge for a country like ours. New Zealand has always had to work that much harder and smarter than larger economies to secure and protect its access to markets. We have always had to be more creative, more constructive, more persistent, and more present.
What this Government has done is bring that same mindset – and more energy, and more urgency – to the task.
That’s why this Government has run more trade missions than any previous administration in a parliamentary term.
That’s why this Government established New Zealand’s first dedicated investment agency.
Because 400 million people around the world get around 10% of their diet from New Zealand. Our farmers, our food producers, our tech companies, and our service exporters are among the best in the world. They deserve a government that fights for them on the world stage.
We are fighting for them. And we are not finished.