Covering period of Sunday 15 – Monday 16 February 2026 – At 2:36pm MetService escalated the Severe Weather Warnings in Manawatu, Rangitikei and Ruapehu Districts north of Feilding and east of State Highway One to a Red Warning for Heavy Rain, in consultation with the Horizons Regional Council.
All MetService Warnings have the potential for impacts, but Red Warnings are reserved for the most extreme weather events where significant impact and disruption are expected.
The escalation to a Red Warning comes as a deep area of low pressure sinks southwards across the eastern coast of the North Island, feeding heavy rain into the region, accompanied by strong gusty winds.
The heaviest rain is forecast for overnight tonight, Sunday, into Monday with the Red Severe Weather Warning running from 6pm Sunday to 2pm Monday.
MetService meteorologist John Law says, “It will be a wet and windy night for many parts of the lower and eastern North Island tonight, with rain returning and persisting through the night. The rainfall around Taihape and the eastern areas of Manawatu is of particular concern, bringing a threat to life from dangerous river conditions, significant flooding, slips and disrupting travel.”
“A Red Warning signifies that people need to act now as immediate action is required to protect people, animals and property from the impact of the weather. People should also be prepared to follow the advice of official authorities and emergency services.”
This is the second Red Warning MetService has issued this year, and it’s the 21st Red Warning weather event since the highest alert level was introduced back in May 2019.
Severe Weather Warnings and Watches also cover much of the eastern and lower North Island both for Heavy Rain and Strong Winds. With strengthening winds forecast though the night, Strong Wind Warnings for severe gales extend from the Cook Strait coast right up the eastern coast with a high chance that the warnings in Hawke’s Bay, eastern Taihape, the Tararua District and Wairarapa could be upgraded to a Red Warning. The strong winds will also be generating rough seas and large waves around the southern and eastern coasts of the North Island.
As the weather system sinks southwards wind and rain will reach down to the top of the South Island, where some Severe Weather Warnings and Watches are also in place.
Keep up to date with weather and warnings via metservice.com or our free MetService weather app.
MetService also now provides push notifications for Severe Weather Warnings via our app. More information can be found here about enabling them.
Understanding MetService Severe Weather Warning System
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Localised Red Warning) – take cover now:
This warning is a red warning for a localised area.
When extremely severe weather is occurring or will do within the hour.
Severe thunderstorms have the ability to have significant impacts for an area indicated in the warning.
In the event of a Severe Thunderstorm Red Warning: Act now!
Red Warnings are about taking immediate action:
When extremely severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Issued when an event is expected to be among the worst that we get – it will have significant impact and it is possible that a lot of people will be affected
In the event of a Red Warning: Act now!
Orange Warnings are about taking action:
When severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather
In the event of an Orange Warning: Take action.
Thunderstorm Watch means thunderstorms are possible, be alert and consider action
Show the area that thunderstorms are most likely to occur during the validity period.
Although thunderstorms are often localised, the whole area is on watch as it is difficult to know exactly where the severe thunderstorm will occur within the mapped area.
During a thunderstorm Watch: Stay alert and take action if necessary.
Watches are about being alert:
When severe weather is possible, but not sufficiently imminent or certain for a warning to be issued
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather.
During a Watch: Stay alert
Outlooks are about looking ahead:
To provide advanced information on possible future Watches and/or Warnings
Issued routinely once or twice a day
Recommendation: Plan.
