Source: MetService
Covering period of Thursday 15th – Monday 19th January.
- Broadscale Heavy Rain Watches and Warnings in place for areas of the North Island and top of the South Island, as well as the potential for localised Severe Thunderstorms and Downpours for much of the North Island
- Colder temperatures in the coming days, particularly in the east.
Heavy rain, downpours and thunderstorms are on the cards for the North Island and top of the South Island today (Thursday) and some of tomorrow (Friday) as an active low from the west moves over the country. Things ease somewhat in the following couple of days but not a full return to settled summer weather we’re hoping for.
Today sees the most action for the North Island. Bay of Plenty and Rotorua are under an Orange Heavy Rain Warning until 11am Friday, as well as Taranaki Maunga until 11pm tonight (Thursday). Auckland, Waikato, Waitomo, Taumarunui, Tongariro National Park, Kapiti/Horowhenua and Wellington are under Yellow Heavy Rain Watches today (Thursday).
Severe Thunderstorm Watches are in place for the remainder of the North Island today, with the exception of Gisborne and Northern Hawkes Bay. However, Severe Thunderstorms and downpours are also a risk for the areas with Heavy Rain Watches and Warnings. This means that most areas have the possibility to see Severe Thunderstorm Warnings issued today.
MetService Meteorologist Katie Lyons states, “Many areas in the North Island have broadscale heavy rain today, but on top of that, those areas also have the risk of localised shorter-lived downpours. Both of these can cause flooding, with the downpours often tipping it over the edge.,”
This system will gradually move off to the east tomorrow, but not before giving a risk of thunderstorms for Eastern Bay of Plenty, Gisborne, and Wairarapa.
The South Island also has it’s own set of Heavy Rain Watches and Warnings today. Northern Marlborough is under an Orange Heavy Rain Warning until 5pm today, with Yellow Heavy Rain Watches for the Tasman, Nelson, southern Marlborough, and northern Canterbury regions.
“Rain and showers spread across the remainder of the South Island today and tomorrow, with a multiday stint of overcast and rainy conditions starting for the east coast,” states Lyons.
Rain becomes mainly confined to eastern and far north areas over the next couple of days, as our broadscale setup changes to a high pressure system to the west-southwest, and easterly winds set to prevail across the country. While the action dies down over the next couple of days, unfortunately it’s not the beautiful, hot, clear-skied summer we are holding out for.
After the warmer temperatures we had last week, these coming days will feel much chillier, particularly around our east coasts. Maximums for Napier and Gisborne will struggle to reach 20°C from Saturday, with Canterbury maximums sitting around 15°C.
“Peering ahead for Wellington Anniversary Day, Kapiti and Horowhenua up through Whanganui look to be sunnier than Wellington itself, so a road trip and beach day may be on the cards for Monday,” says Lyons.
It’s been a quiet tropical cyclone season in the South Pacific but there’s an area of interest northwest of New Caledonia which sees increased risk of development over the weekend. This may see a tropical cyclone form early next week. We’ll be keeping an eye on developments and put out messaging if there’s significant risk of impact to New Zealand.
