Source: MetService
Covering period of Monday 29th December 2025 – Thursday 1st January 2026
As the final week of 2025 unfolds, MetService is forecasting a mix of rain, wind, thunderstorms, and cooler temperatures for many places. But while there will be plenty to keep an eye on, there are also likely to be welcome breaks for some parts of the country, helping outdoor celebrations remain on the cards.
It’s soggy camping as rain is currently falling over the top half of the North Island, associated with a rainband sinking southward today (Monday). The most intense and persistent of the rain is focused on our eastern areas, with Coromandel, Bay of Plenty, Gisborne/Tairāwhiti, and Hawke’s Bay all under Orange Heavy Rain Warnings today (Monday), continuing into the early hours of tomorrow (Tuesday) for Gisborne/Tairāwhiti and Hawke’s Bay. The longevity and persistence of the rain mixed with some heavy falls means some areas may see large rainfall accumulations.
“Early in the event, ranges in the Coromandel region are already seeing over 40mm of rain, with 20mm toward the towns. It’s unfortunate weather to hit such popular camping spots and the festival goers in the Gisborne/Tairāwhiti region,” says MetService Meteorologist Katie Lyons.
This rainband will sink further south, so conditions do ease toward New Years. The rainband will affect eastern areas of the South Island from Tuesday until the end of the year.
As if a soggy tent wasn’t bad enough, a loud rustling one is also on the cards for many as gale southeasterlies spread over the North Island, and northwest of the South Island.
The Coromandel, Waikato down to Taranaki and Taihape, as well as Manawatu south to Kapiti are all under an Orange Strong Wind Warning today (Monday), ending tomorrow further south. Those southeasterlies are set to accelerate up and over the ranges, bringing big gusts to exposed places. It’s a similar story for Buller, Grey and northern Westland from 10pm tonight through 2pm tomorrow (Tuesday). Many other areas around the North Island under Strong Wind Watches as well, including Auckland and Wellington.
“Winds are expected to be strongest in exposed areas, such as hill tops. However, it’s a different direction than we are used to, so those that usually feel sheltered might catch the strong winds today. High sided vehicles, for example campervans, should be extra mindful,” says Meteorologist Katie Lyons.
Looking ahead, while the main action is today (Monday) and tomorrow (Tuesday), that doesn’t mean it’s fine and sunny weather to end the year. Showers will continue to affect the country as we remain under the influence of low pressure system to the west.
For now, the driest place for New Years Eve seems to be the far south of the country, and the rainiest being western central New Zealand. However, the beauty of showers is that they might give us a few gaps to celebrate the years end outside. Definitely a time to have a plan B for your New Year’s festivities and keep a keen eye on the forecast and radar,” says Lyons.
Temperatures have been cooler across the country, but it is especially cool in the east of the South Island, with maximum temperatures of 15°C for Blenheim and Christchurch tomorrow.
With so much action this week, more settled weather should be on the cards for the start of 2026.
Happy New Year from the team at MetService.
