Property Market – Property values still going nowhere fast – Cotality

“At the end of 2024, our analysis suggested that 2025 was likely to be a ‘year of conflicting forces’ in the property market, with the upwards influence on house prices from lower mortgage rates counteracted to an extent by headwinds such as an abundance of listings and the weak labour market.”

“That broad theme has proven correct, with regions including Auckland and Wellington remaining soft. Even in more resilient areas such as Hamilton and Christchurch, the picture isn’t that much better.”

“The jobs market uncertainty is surely a key limiting factor at present.”

“That said, rising sales activity has now started to erode the stock of available listings a touch, probably augmented by some would-be vendors actively withdrawing their listed properties from the market.”

“This could lead to more competitive price pressure later in the year, especially as a greater number of existing borrowers roll off older, higher mortgage rates and down to current levels.”

Across New Zealand, Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland and Ōtepoti Dunedin were the weakest of the main centres in July, dropping by -0.6% apiece – with the former also -1.4% down in the past quarter.

Te Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington dipped by -0.2% and Ōtautahi Christchurch saw a minor -0.1% decline, although values are still slightly higher (+0.4%) than three months ago.

Meanwhile, Kirikiriroa Hamilton saw a +0.4% lift in July, with Tauranga up at +0.9%. However, that’s not necessarily a clear new trend in Tauranga, with some previous softer months meaning it’s still only +0.8% higher over the past year.

National and Main Centres

Index results for July 2025	Change in dwelling values
					Median value
Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland					$1,069,605
Kirikiriroa Hamilton
Te-Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington*
Ōtautahi Christchurch
Ōtepoti Dunedin
Aotearoa New Zealand

Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland

Value patterns were variable in the wider Te Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington area in July, with Te Awa Kairangi ki Tai Lower Hutt up by +0.3%, and Porirua also edging higher. By contrast, there were falls in other key sub-markets, such as Wellington City itself.

Over the past year, Porirua has managed to sneak up by +0.8%, while all other areas have dropped. Yet even Porirua is still substantially below its peak too (-21.6%).

“Te Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington’s previous sharp downturn in property values is likely to have come to an end, but that doesn’t mean an upturn has suddenly emerged. In fact, market confidence levels around the Capital seemingly remain low, and property value tr