Covering period of Monday 1 – Friday 5 July 2024 – July kicks off with windy and wet conditions as MetService forecasts a band of rain to move northwards across Aotearoa New Zealand today (Monday) and tomorrow (Tuesday). However, the second half of the week holds drier, yet colder weather in store.
MetService has issued Severe Weather Warnings for Strong Winds across the Wellington region and central North Island, with gusts expected to reach 120km/h until Monday evening. Milford Sound recorded over 100mm of rain overnight Sunday into Monday. While the rain is set to gradually ease across the South Island, Heavy Rain Warnings remain in effect for the western South Island this afternoon and Taranaki Mounga until 7pm tonight.
“Low pressure to the south of the country is making for a windy start to the month, and with those winds arriving from the northwest, it’s the western facing mountains that will be seeing the heaviest rainfall,” explains MetService meteorologist John Law.
In addition to the rain, snow returns to the higher elevations of the South Island, leading to Road Snowfall Warnings for several mountain passes and high-level roads today into tomorrow morning. This extends to the Desert Road in the North Island tomorrow afternoon and evening.
As we move through the week, showers are expected to gradually become confined to the eastern and southern coasts by Wednesday and Thursday, bringing drier weather for much of the country. At the same time, a shift to southerly to southwesterly winds will keep things breezy along the eastern coastlines. This is expected to generate rough sea conditions along the South Island on Tuesday, extending to the North Island on Wednesday.
Those southerly winds will also lower temperatures, bringing them closer to seasonal norms, with some colder nights ahead. “Frosty nights are typical for this time of year, but with places like Hamilton dropping from 9°C tonight to just 0°C on Thursday morning, it will certainly feel like a change,” comments Law.
Daytime temperatures will also serve as a reminder that winter is here. Northland and parts of Auckland are likely to experience their coldest day of the year so far on Friday, with Whangārei and Auckland City only reaching a high of 13°C to end the week.
Understanding MetService Severe Weather Warning System
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Localised Red Warning) – take cover now:
This warning is a red warning for a localised area.
When extremely severe weather is occurring or will do within the hour.
Severe thunderstorms have the ability to have significant impacts for an area indicated in the warning.
In the event of a Severe Thunderstorm Red Warning: Act now!
Red Warnings are about taking immediate action:
When extremely severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Issued when an event is expected to be among the worst that we get – it will have significant impact and it is possible that a lot of people will be affected
In the event of a Red Warning: Act now!
Orange Warnings are about taking action:
When severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather
In the event of an Orange Warning: Take action.
Thunderstorm Watch means thunderstorms are possible, be alert and consider action
Show the area that thunderstorms are most likely to occur during the validity period.
Although thunderstorms are often localised, the whole area is on watch as it is difficult to know exactly where the severe thunderstorm will occur within the mapped area.
During a thunderstorm Watch: Stay alert and take action if necessary.
Watches are about being alert:
When severe weather is possible, but not sufficiently imminent or certain for a warning to be issued
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather.
During a Watch: Stay alert
Outlooks are about looking ahead:
To provide advanced information on possible future Watches and/or Warnings
Issued routinely once or twice a day
Recommendation: Plan.
