The interim Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand for the seven months ended 31 January 2024 were released by the Treasury today.
The January results are reported against forecasts based on the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2023 (HYEFU 2023), published on 20 December 2023 and the results for the same period for the previous year.
| Year to date | Full Year | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 2024 Actual1 $m |
January 2024 HYEFU 2023 Forecast1 $m |
Variance2 HYEFU 2023 $m |
Variance HYEFU 2023 % |
June 2024 HYEFU 2023 Forecast3 $m |
|
| Core Crown tax revenue | 69,005 | 69,757 | (752) | (1.1) | 122,025 |
| Core Crown revenue | 76,824 | 77,444 | (620) | (0.8) | 135,740 |
| Core Crown expenses | 78,575 | 79,601 | 1,026 | 1.3 | 140,286 |
| Core Crown residual cash | (14,958) | (13,019) | (1,939) | (14.9) | (25,831) |
| Net debt4 | 82,854 | 85,770 | 2,916 | 3.4 | 97,414 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 20.7% | 21.4% | 23.2% | ||
| Gross debt | 160,043 | 155,291 | (4,752) | (3.1) | 166,640 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 39.9% | 38.7% | 39.7% | ||
| Operating balance before gains and losses | (3,655) | (3,726) | 71 | 1.9 | (9,319) |
| Operating balance (excluding minority interests) | (3,226) | (3,852) | 626 | 16.3 | (6,873) |
| Net worth attributable to the Crown | 180,841 | 180,186 | 655 | 0.4 | 177,160 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 45.1% | 45.0% | 42.2% | ||
Using the most recently published GDP (for the year ended 30 September 2023) of $400,818 million (Source: Stats NZ).
Favourable variances against forecast have a positive sign and unfavourable variances against forecast have a negative sign.
Using HYEFU 2023 forecast GDP for the year ending 30 June 2024 of $419,982 million (Source: The Treasury).
The net debt indicator includes core Crown advances, Crown entity borrowings (excluding Kiwi Group Capital) and the financial assets and borrowings of the New Zealand Super Fund (NZS Fund).
Core Crown tax revenue at $69.0 billion was $0.8 billion (1.1%) below forecast. The variance was largely owing to corporate tax and net other individual’s tax being below forecast by $0.5 billion and $0.3 billion, respectively. This was attributed to reduced taxable profits associated with both filed and estimated tax assessments as a result of deteriorating macroeconomic factors.
Core Crown revenue at $76.8 billion was $0.6 billion lower than forecast. The weaker tax outturn was partially offset by higher-than-expected interest revenue of $0.2 billion.
Core Crown expenses at $78.6 billion was lower than forecast by $1.0 billion. The variance was distributed across several areas, and is expected to be mainly timing in nature.
The operating balance before gains and losses (OBEGAL) was a deficit of $3.7 billion, $0.1 billion lower than the forecast deficit. This variance is primarily attributed to the core Crown results discussed earlier and the results of SOEs which were $0.5 billion below forecast.
The operating balance was a deficit of $3.2 billion, which was $0.6 billion smaller than anticipated. Notably, net gains on financial instruments exceeded the anticipated loss by $5.2 billion, driven by higher returns on listed equities, derivative gains on the NZS Fund, and gains on interest rate swaps and financial assets held by ACC. This was partially offset by net losses on non-financial instruments which were $4.6 billion greater than the expected gain, primarily due to an increase in the ACC outstanding claims liability and higher losses on the Emissions Trading Scheme liability.
The core Crown residual cash deficit of $15.0 billion was higher than the forecast deficit by $1.9 billion. This deficit was primarily driven by net core Crown operating cash outflows and net core Crown capital cash outflows, which were higher than forecast by $1.6 billion and $0.3 billion, respectively.
Net debt at $82.9 billion (20.7% of GDP) was $2.9 billion lower than forecast, with the variance primarily driven by net gains on financial assets, exceeding the forecast by $4.5 billion, mainly due to the NZS Fund’s strong performance. This was partially offset by a weaker core Crown residual cash position of $1.6 billion, excluding contributions to the NZS Fund and core Crown advances.
Gross debt at $160.0 billion (39.9% of GDP) exceeded forecasts by $4.8 billion, primarily due to additional borrowing to manage short-term liquidity needs, with short-term borrowings $5.8 billion above forecast. This was comprised of Euro Commercial Paper being $6.6 billion above forecast offset by Treasury Bills being $0.8 billion below forecast.
Net worth attributable to the Crown was $180.8 billion, $0.7 billion higher than forecast. This was largely driven by the variance in the operating balance result discussed above.
