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Source: MetService

Covering period of Monday 4 – Thursday 7 December – As the calendar officially ushers in summer, MetService is forecasting an active opening week of weather; from thundery showers over the North Island to a rain-laden front sweeping the South Island.

According to MetService meteorologist Mmathapelo Makgabutlane, the North Island is set to be the focal point of the week, with intermittent showers forecast. “Most regions will experience a shower or two, especially in the early part of the week. Tuesday, in particular, seems poised for wet weather in eastern areas like Tairāwhiti/Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay, although not as intense as recent weeks,” says Makgabutlane.

Thunderstorms will also enter the mix, potentially delivering heavier downpours. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect today (Monday) from 2pm to 9pm for the Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Rotorua, and Taupo. Thunderstorms are anticipated to resume on Tuesday, with Northland and Auckland likely to experience increased shower activity.

While Thursday and Friday appear more settled under a ridge of high pressure, warm daytime temperatures may spur afternoon shower activity. In the eastern South Island, a temperature dip today will be followed by a recovery on Wednesday, with temperatures expected to reach the low to mid-20s once again.

For the South Island, a ridge of high-pressure is punctuated by a frontal weather system on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing wet weather to the west and brief showers to lower and eastern parts. A sunnier outlook is anticipated as the system moves off, providing ample sunshine to conclude the working week.

This unsettled start to December, along with the anticipated weather patterns for the rest of the month, is detailed in the latest MetService Monthly Outlook.

Beyond our shores, a Tropical Low near the Solomon Islands is expected to intensify into a Tropical Cyclone later this week. Impacts to Australia’s East Coast are expected and MetService forecasters are keeping a close eye on the path of the cyclone, especially once it moves away from Australia’s coast.

For media enquiries or to arrange an interview with one of our meteorologists please call 04 4700 848 or email

Understanding MetService Severe Weather Warning System

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Localised Red Warning) – take cover now:

This warning is a red warning for a localised area.
When extremely severe weather is occurring or will do within the hour.
Severe thunderstorms have the ability to have significant impacts for an area indicated in the warning.
In the event of a Severe Thunderstorm Red Warning: Act now!

Red Warnings are about taking immediate action:

When extremely severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Issued when an event is expected to be among the worst that we get – it will have significant impact and it is possible that a lot of people will be affected
In the event of a Red Warning: Act now!

Orange Warnings are about taking action:

When severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather
In the event of an Orange Warning: Take action.

Thunderstorm Watch means thunderstorms are possible, be alert and consider action

Show the area that thunderstorms are most likely to occur during the validity period.
Although thunderstorms are often localised, the whole area is on watch as it is difficult to know exactly where the severe thunderstorm will occur within the mapped area.
During a thunderstorm Watch: Stay alert and take action if necessary.

Watches are about being alert:

When severe weather is possible, but not sufficiently imminent or certain for a warning to be issued
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather.
During a Watch: Stay alert

Outlooks are about looking ahead:

To provide advanced information on possible future Watches and/or Warnings
Issued routinely once or twice a day
Recommendation: Plan