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Source: NIWA

The Seasonal Climate Outlook for November-January is attached, along with graphics for your use.
  • El Niño continued during October and will likely intensify
over the next three months.  Rainfall is most likely to be below normal in the north and east of the North Island and above normal in the west of the South Island. Prolonged dry spells are possible in several regions. Strong lows will occasionally impact the western and lower South Island, delivering heavy rainfall and a risk for flooding. The first half of November, however, looks drier than normal.
Temperatures are most likely to be above average in the east of both islands and the north of the North Island, with a hot spell likely during the second half of November.
Seasonal wind strength above normal across most of the country, with a higher than normal risk for periods of damaging winds.
  • Normal or above normal wildfire activity expected, particularly in northern and eastern areas of both islands during periods of hot, windy weather. For more info: