Covering period of Monday 25th – Friday 29th September – MetService is forecasting a number of lows and associated fronts to stick around today (Monday) and tomorrow, continuing to bring rain for most of Te Ika-a-Māui/North Island, while mostly clear skies dominate southern and western parts of Te Waipounamu/South Island, which sits under a narrow ridge.
MetService meteorologist Dom Barry explains, “Warning amounts of heavy rain are expected for Bay of Plenty, Rotorua and Gisborne/Tairāwhiti north of Gisborne City today. Heavy Rain Watches are also in place for Coromandel Peninsula and Gisborne/Tairāwhiti about and south of Gisborne City and Hawke’s Bay north of Napier. This is due to a complex low pressure system slowly moving southeast-wards today.”
He continues, “The heavy rain eases in these areas into tomorrow, but showers remain, some of which could be heavy in Hawke’s Bay. Meanwhile, the low moves to the northeast of Te Waipounamu/South Island, bringing periods of rain for the likes of Blenheim, Kaikōura, and eventually north Canterbury by the end of the day.”
“At the same time, Strong Wind Watches for coastal Marlborough north of Clarence, the Marlborough Sounds, and Wellington come into force tonight, with severe southerly gales expected in Cook Strait.”
Heading into Wednesday, MetService is forecasting winds to pick up over the north of the North Island briefly. A classically El Niño, southwesterly flow then forms over the remainder of the country behind this ridge, sending showery weather up the western coasts and onto Northland through to Thursday. It remains mainly dry for the likes of Southland, Otago and Gisborne at this time, as the complex low pressure system finally moves away into the Pacific.
Temperatures, whilst remaining average for this time of year, will feel cooler than what we have experienced in the first week of spring, with single digits expected overnight for most of the country.
A front turns up Friday and moves up the West Coast, creating a wet and gloomy day for them.
A ridge bringing better weather is on the horizon – but we have to wait until the end of the weekend for light at the end of the tunnel – and hopefully some outside days for the second week of the school holidays.
For media enquiries or to arrange an interview with one of our meteorologists please call 04 4700 848 or email metcomms@metservice.com
Understanding MetService Severe Weather Warning System
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Localised Red Warning) – take cover now:
This warning is a red warning for a localised area.
When extremely severe weather is occurring or will do within the hour.
Severe thunderstorms have the ability to have significant impacts for an area indicated in the warning.
In the event of a Severe Thunderstorm Red Warning: Act now!
Red Warnings are about taking immediate action:
When extremely severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Issued when an event is expected to be among the worst that we get – it will have significant impact and it is possible that a lot of people will be affected
In the event of a Red Warning: Act now!
Orange Warnings are about taking action:
When severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather
In the event of an Orange Warning: Take action.
Thunderstorm Watch means thunderstorms are possible, be alert and consider action
Show the area that thunderstorms are most likely to occur during the validity period.
Although thunderstorms are often localised, the whole area is on watch as it is difficult to know exactly where the severe thunderstorm will occur within the mapped area.
During a thunderstorm Watch: Stay alert and take action if necessary.
Watches are about being alert:
When severe weather is possible, but not sufficiently imminent or certain for a warning to be issued
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather.
During a Watch: Stay alert
Outlooks are about looking ahead:
To provide advanced information on possible future Watches and/or Warnings
Issued routinely once or twice a day
Recommendation: Plan
