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Source: MetService
Covering period of Thursday 31st August – Monday 4th September – According to MetService, a ridge maintains its presence holding settled weather over much of Aotearoa New Zealand today and Te Waipounamu/South Island in the weekend. A low affecting the upper north, spreads areas of rain to much of Te Ika-a-Māui/North Island come Sunday.

There are clear skies forecast for this evening for many areas making great viewing conditions for  tonight’s Super Blue Moon. That being said, fog which affected parts of Kirikiriroa/Hamilton and Tāmaki Makaurau/Auckland this morning is likely to return early tomorrow morning which could hamper moon gazing in those areas.

MetService meteorologist Dom Barry says, “The majority of Te Ika-a-Māui/North Island will be fine this evening, however some areas of cloud are possible west of the Tararua and Ruahine Ranges, and also east of the Raukumara Range, which may make moon-spotting tricky at times. The east of the South Island will be in for a viewing treat, however, those on the West Coast and in the far south may struggle to get a peep.”

Heading into Saturday, settled weather continues over central Aotearoa New Zealand thanks to that ridge. Meanwhile, a front stalls over the lower South Island and a low-pressure system approaches the Far North, bringing rain and strong winds to both places.

Barry continues, “An Orange Heavy Rain Warning has been issued for Fiordland about and south of George Sound from Friday morning to Saturday morning, with up to 180mm of rain expected to fall there.

As we approach the weekend, Watches and Warnings for rain and wind associated with the low-pressure system in the north are still possible, so please stay up to date with information on our app or website.”

The ridge pushes the rain off the lower South Island during Saturday, bringing fine weather to most of the Island over the weekend. Meanwhile, the low from the north continues to head southwards, bringing at least a period of rain to the entire North Island during the weekend, with northern and eastern areas likely to see a more prolonged spell of wet weather into early next week. Eventually, the low system will affect the eastern coasts of the upper South Island on Sunday with cloud and showers developing.

Understanding MetService Severe Weather Warning System

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Localised Red Warning) – take cover now:

This warning is a red warning for a localised area.
When extremely severe weather is occurring or will do within the hour.
Severe thunderstorms have the ability to have significant impacts for an area indicated in the warning.
In the event of a Severe Thunderstorm Red Warning: Act now!

Red Warnings are about taking immediate action:

When extremely severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Issued when an event is expected to be among the worst that we get – it will have significant impact and it is possible that a lot of people will be affected
In the event of a Red Warning: Act now!

Orange Warnings are about taking action:

When severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather
In the event of an Orange Warning: Take action.

Thunderstorm Watch means thunderstorms are possible, be alert and consider action

Show the area that thunderstorms are most likely to occur during the validity period.
Although thunderstorms are often localised, the whole area is on watch as it is difficult to know exactly where the severe thunderstorm will occur within the mapped area.
During a thunderstorm Watch: Stay alert and take action if necessary.

Watches are about being alert:

When severe weather is possible, but not sufficiently imminent or certain for a warning to be issued
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather.
During a Watch: Stay alert

Outlooks are about looking ahead:

To provide advanced information on possible future Watches and/or Warnings
Issued routinely once or twice a day
Recommendation: Plan

MIL OSI