With an announcement due today on New Zealand’s border reopening plan, University of Canterbury’s (UC) Professor Michael Plank, UC’s Giorgia Vattiatio, University of Auckland’s Professor Shaun Hendy and Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research’s Audrey Lustig explain why MIQ may still be needed in the future.
Thecontroversysurrounding New Zealand journalist Charlotte Bellis, who has now accepted a place in border quarantine after initially seeking refuge in Afghanistan when her first application was declined, has highlighted confusion and concern over New Zealand’s managed isolation and quarantine (MIQ) system.
Cabinet ministers are currently discussing changes to MIQ as part of a plan to reopen New Zealand’s borders, expected to be announced later today. This will update astaged timelineannounced late last year, which was pushed back when the Omicron variant emerged overseas.
Since New Zealand’s MIQ system was established at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, it has intercepted more than 2000 cases at the border. Over half of these have been found in the two months since the start of December, following Omicron’s rise to global dominance.
If New Zealand had removed the requirement for international arrivals to go through MIQ last year, we would almost certainly have faced a large Omicron wave during December and January, just as happened in many Australian states. Does this matter, given we are now facing an Omicron wave anyway?
The answer is a clear yes.
By delaying the start of the Omicron outbreak New Zealand has bought valuable time to prepare. This has allowed for the build-up of supplies ofrapid antigen tests, which will be needed when case numbers take off, and work onimproved ventilation in schools.
It has also enabled us to reduce the number of Delta cases to very low levels, lowering the chances of a “dual epidemic” with Omicron dominating cases but Delta adding significant extra demand on hospitals and intensive care units.
Boosted and better prepared
We have also learnt a lot about Omicron itself in the past two months, allowing us to adjust our response. But most crucially, the delay tactics have provided time to increase collective immunity by rolling out booster doses and starting vaccination of 5-11-year-olds.
Over 1.3 million New Zealanders havenow been boosted, including some of our higher-risk groups. And about one in three 5-11-year-olds has had their first dose.
Boosters are essential for providing high levels of protection against serious illness with Omicron. Data from theUK Health Security Agencyestimate that, about three months after the second dose, the risk of being hospitalised with COVID-19 is about half that of an unvaccinated person. After a booster, this drops to about one tenth of the risk of an unvaccinated person.