Source: Public Service Association Te Pūkenga Here Tikanga Mahi
- 49% would support delaying the return to surplus by one year to restore pay equity
- 46% would support delaying the net debt target by two years
- A majority of Labour, Greens and Opportunity voters support delays
- National voters split 39% for and 39% against delaying surplus; only ACT voters strongly opposed
New Zealanders’ support for restoring pay equity extends to a willingness to see governments adjust their fiscal targets, if necessary, to make provision for the cost of doing so, a new Talbot Mills poll commissioned by the PSA shows.
The National-ACT-New Zealand First coalition estimates that it had saved $12.8 billion over four years through its decision in May last year to scrap pay equity claims under urgency, without warning and without consultation. Coalition parties have suggested that it would be unaffordable for a future Government to settle these claims and the legislative framework that supported it.
“We reject the suggestion that fiscal targets are more important than paying women workers what it’s proven they are worth and this poll shows New Zealanders agree,” said Fleur Fitzsimons, National Secretary for the Public Service Association Te Pūkenga Here Tikanga Mahi.
“We’ve previously identified savings that could bring the net fiscal cost down well below previous fiscal estimates.- Plus, the next Government can have revenue measures or use some of its Budget operating allowances to contribute to the cost.”
Even on the most conservative assumptions, where the full gross cost of restoring pay equity flows through the Government accounts, the impact of this would be:
- to delay the operating balance (as measured by OBEGALx) coming back in surplus by just one year, from 2028/29 to 2029/30; and
- to push out the date for achieving the target of bringing net core Crown debt down to 40 percent of GDP (‘the 40 percent target’) by a modest two years from 2032 to 2034.
“These are fiscal adjustments that New Zealand can easily afford,” said Council of Trade Unions National Secretary Melissa Ansell-Bridges.
“What’s more, this polling shows that New Zealanders strongly support the Government making these choices, if needed to restore pay equity.”
Far more New Zealanders would be prepared to delay the Government’s return to surplus by a year to restore pay equity than oppose it, 49 percent to 28 percent.
Support for delaying the 40 percent debt target by two years also leads voter sentiment, 46 percent to 29 percent.
This poll adds to growing public pressure on parties contesting the election to make a tangible commitment to restore pay equity (poll details below and attached).
“Voters are ahead of the politicians,” said Ansell-Bridges. “The next Government must right the wrongs of the past and deliver pay equity for the 180,000 predominantly female workers whose pay rise was sacrificed to make the Budget numbers work.
“New Zealanders understand that paying people their true worth for the jobs they do matters, and that it should come ahead of the fiscal targets. They are prepared to wait a little longer for a surplus to see it done.”
The poll shows it’s not just voters on the left. National voters are evenly split on delaying the surplus, and NZ First voters are more likely to back a delay than oppose it. Only ACT voters are clearly opposed.
Women are more likely to support delaying the surplus for pay equity (53 percent) than men (45 percent). On the debt target, support leads opposition in every age group, from 51 percent to 24 percent among 18-29 year olds to 42 percent to 32 percent among those aged 60 and over.
“The evidence for restoring pay equity is strong just like the public support,” said Fleur Fitzsimons.
“PSA analysis shows reinstating it would grow the economy by $13.5 billion over four years, create around 13,000 jobs, and lift an estimated 11,000 children out of poverty.
“The Government has defended scrapping pay equity on fiscal cost grounds. This poll shows many voters are willing to accept a short delay in the current fiscal targets to get it back.”
Earlier polling points the same way. A PSA-CTU Horizon Research poll in September last year found 42 percent opposed the pay equity changes, and a RNZ Reid Research poll in June last year found 43 percent against the overhaul.
“Restoring pay equity is the right thing to do, morally, fiscally and economically. The care and support settlement is ready to implement and should be resolved in the first 100 days,” said Fitzsimons.
Poll details
Talbot Mills Research nationwide online survey commissioned by the PSA. Sample size 1894, adults aged 18 and over. Maximum sampling error ±2.3% at the 95% confidence level. Fieldwork was conducted between 10 and 17 September 2026. Full survey report attached.
Questions
For the last few years, the Government has been spending more than it has been bringing in. This is currently expected to flip – called returning to surplus – in 2029. Would you support delaying the return to surplus by one year, until 2030, in order to restore pay equity for New Zealand women?
- Yes – 49%
- No – 28%
- Unsure – 23%
The current Government has a goal of getting net Government debt below 40% of New Zealand’s gross domestic product. Current forecasts suggest that this goal might be achieved in 2032. Would you support delaying the achievement of the 40% target by two years, until 2034, in order to restore pay equity for New Zealand women?
- Yes – 46%
- No – 29%
- Unsure – 25%
Previous PSA analysis on fiscal and economic benefits of pay equity
9 September Restoring pay equity would boost income of 91,000 families by $300/week – PSA analysis
23 August Govt’s axing of pay equity cost jobs & GDP growth – PSA analysis
Analysis of the fiscal impact of restoring pay equity out of existing revenue (and with no offsetting savings taken into account) was performed using Treasury’s Budget 2026 fiscal strategy model (FSM).
The Public Service Association Te Pūkenga Here Tikanga Mahi is Aotearoa New Zealand’s largest trade union, representing and supporting more than 95,000 workers across central government, state-owned enterprises, local councils, health boards and community groups.