Source: Hāpai Te Hauora
Hāpai Te Hauora is calling for greater scrutiny of changes that will make Powerball’s top prize harder to win while allowing jackpots to grow larger.
From 13 September, the number of possible Powerball numbers will increase from 10 to 14. The odds of winning Powerball Division 1 will shift from approximately one in 38.4 million to one in 53.7 million.
At the same time, the starting jackpot will increase from $4 million to $5 million, and the maximum jackpot will rise from $50 million to $60 million.
Lotto NZ says the redesigned game will create more winners overall through a new Division 8 prize. However, every existing Powerball division will become harder to win, with Lotto forecasting around 9,000 fewer winners across Divisions 1 to 7 each week.
The new Division 8 will instead create more frequent fixed $12 prizes. Lotto NZ says the changes will increase the total number of weekly Powerball winners across all divisions by around 30 percent.
Lotto NZ has also said Division 1 will be won less frequently and projected that a $60 million Must Be Won draw could occur every two to two-and-a-half years.
Hāpai Te Hauora Chief Operating Officer Jason Alexander says the changes need to be considered through a gambling-harm lens, rather than presented only as a product enhancement.
“Lotto is not usually associated with the same level of harm as some other forms of gambling, but less harmful does not mean harmless,” Alexander says.
“The redesign changes both ends of the reward structure. The jackpot becomes harder to win and is expected to grow larger more often, while players become more likely to experience frequent $12 wins.
“Those are deliberate changes to how people experience the game, and we want to see the harm-minimisation assessment that sits behind that design.”
Alexander says Lotto occupies a unique place in New Zealand.
“It is a gambling product, but it is also one of the country’s most trusted brands, supported by decades of advertising built around hope, family, generosity, community benefit and the dream of winning.”
“When a product with that level of trust is redesigned to create larger jackpots and more frequent small wins, it deserves the same level of harm-minimisation scrutiny we would expect of any other gambling operator.”
Lotto NZ’s own reporting shows the commercial value of high Powerball jackpots.
Its 2023/24 Integrated Report says three high Powerball jackpots helped drive Lotto-family sales up 14 percent on the previous year to $1.451 billion.
In its Statement of Performance Expectations, Lotto NZ says sales begin to increase exponentially once the Powerball jackpot exceeds $20 million. It also says that higher-than-normal jackpots can push profits above forecast, while a very high Must Be Won draw can result in profit significantly exceeding budget.
“Lotto knows large jackpots draw more people in,” Alexander says.
“Making the top prize harder to win means jackpots are likely to grow larger and remain high for longer – creating more of the very conditions Lotto knows drive participation and sales.”
“That is why this cannot be looked at simply as a change to the game. We also need to understand what it means for gambling behavior and harm.”
In an email to gambling-harm service providers during a $35 million jackpot in July, Lotto NZ acknowledged that jackpots at that level may increase the risk of harm for some customers.
Its advice reminded players that the odds do not improve as the jackpot grows, buying more has very little impact on those odds, and there is no “lucky store” or strategy that increases a person’s chance of winning.
Alexander says high-jackpot periods should come with greater transparency about participation, spending and harm.
“If Lotto knows that very large jackpots change the way people play, we should be able to see what happens to participation, spending and indicators of harm as those jackpots grow.
“The bigger question is whether a product design that is expected to produce larger jackpots and stronger sales has been properly assessed for its potential impact on gambling harm.”
Hāpai is also asking news organisations to consider how routine coverage of large jackpots, Must Be Won draws, winners and so-called lucky stores can normalise and promote gambling.
“We are asking for the same level of responsibility we would expect when reporting on any other gambling product,” Alexander says.
“That means clearly identifying Lotto as gambling, publishing the actual odds and avoiding language that exaggerates people’s likelihood of winning.
“When reporting on a major winner, media should also report how much New Zealanders collectively spent on that draw. Reporting only the win and not the losses presents a false picture of what happened, and what is likely to happen.”
Hāpai is also asking media to include safer-gambling messaging and support information.
Lotto products remain New Zealand’s most commonly used form of gambling. While Lotto carries a lower risk than continuous forms of gambling such as pokies, gambling harm does not fall evenly across Aotearoa.
Māori, Pacific peoples and people living in more deprived communities are more likely to experience harm from their own or someone else’s gambling.
“When some whānau and communities already carry a disproportionate burden of gambling harm, changes designed to drive excitement and participation deserve much closer scrutiny,” Alexander says.
The scrutiny is particularly important as New Zealand’s gambling environment is about to become significantly more crowded.
“As people are exposed to more gambling products and promotion, gambling is becoming harder to avoid. We need to consider the cumulative impact on whānau, rather than looking at each change in isolation.”
Notes
- The new Powerball format takes effect on 13 September 2026.
- The number of possible Powerball numbers increases from 10 to 14.
- The odds of winning Powerball Division 1 change from approximately 1 in 38.4 million to 1 in 53.7 million per line.
- The starting jackpot increases from $4 million to $5 million; the maximum increases from $50 million to $60 million.
- Lotto NZ says the new Division 8 prize will increase the total number of weekly Powerball winners across all divisions by around 30 percent. The price of playing Powerball will not increase.
- Free and confidential support: gamblingharm.nz