Source: ChildFund New Zealand
On top of a fuel crisis that is turning into a water, food and health crisis, Pacific islands are bracing for the impact of an El Niño season, threatening to bring floods to some islands, and drought to others.
“An El Niño season could negatively impact access to safe drinking water for children across the Pacific,” says Josie Pagani, CEO ChildFund New Zealand.
Between now and Christmas there is a 100% chance the Pacific will experience El Niño. (https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update/island-climate-update-311-september-2026)
While New Zealand is expected to experience drier conditions and stronger winds, some countries in the Pacific could see serious drought conditions, while in others there could be more flooding.
“El Niño doesn’t hit every Pacific country the same way. Some islands get heavier rain. Others get drought. Both are dangerous. Drought dries up drinking water and kills crops. Heavy rain contaminates shallow wells and spreads disease through poor sanitation. Either way, children lose first,” says Josie Pagani.
Cyclones are also more likely during an El Niño cycle.
In Kiribati, there is already no margin for error. Amongst the households tested by ChildFund in December 2021, 73% had unsafe or likely unsafe drinking water, simply from bacterial contamination. That’s before any climate shock arrives.
“We know the Pacific is the most aid-dependent area on the planet per head of population. Children are always the first to suffer when water becomes unsafe or food becomes scarce,” Josie Pagani says.
ChildFund New Zealand works with local partners across the Pacific on water storage, water testing, solar-driven water purification systems, hygiene education, rainwater collection and community gardens – the practical groundwork that determines whether a family can endure a shock like El Niño.
“We know El Niño is coming. Now is the time to prepare to reduce the impact when it arrives. The smart thing is to strengthen water and food systems now, before the pressure peaks.”
ChildFund New Zealand is calling for a united NZ Inc. response to El Niño in our shared neighbourhood of the Pacific.
“New Zealand charities like ChildFund, our government, Pacific governments, and the businesses working in the Pacific need to come together to work out a joint response to these polycrisis hitting the region, from fuel shortages to El Niño.”
NOTES
10 Facts about El Niño https://childfund.org.nz/news-and-stories/10-facts-about-el-nino
NIWA Weather outlook: https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update (https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update/island-climate-update-311-september-2026)
Where the name El Niño comes from: https://childfund.org.nz/news-and-stories/el-nino-and-la-nina-what-their-names-mean-and-how-they-work