Source: deVere Group
July 29 2026
The oil spike is a warning shot for portfolios, not just markets, affirms the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organisations.
Nigel Green of deVere Group’s comments come as Brent crude jumped 3.42% to $86.97 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate rose 3.58% to $82.09, after Iran fired ballistic missiles at American forces in the Middle East and US and Saudi jets struck Iran-backed sites in Iraq in response.
“Markets had started to relax. A pause in the fighting had investors pricing in de-escalation, and today that assumption got torn up in a single session,” says Nigel Green.
“This is exactly why treating any Middle East ceasefire as durable was always a mistake dressed up as optimism.”
Both benchmarks moved sharply within hours of the strikes, reversing weeks of calmer trading that had followed an earlier lull in hostilities.
“A near 3.5% jump in both benchmarks inside hours is no rounding error, rather the market repricing risk that never actually went away. Investors who sold their hedges during the lull are now buying them back at a worse price.”
The renewed strikes centre on waterways that carry a significant share of the world’s energy supply, which is why the deVere CEO says the market reaction has outpaced the physical disruption so far.
The concern goes well beyond energy markets themselves because oil shocks have a well-worn path into interest rate decisions.
“Energy shocks move straight into the inflation numbers, and from there straight into central bank decisions,” says Nigel Green.
“During the last flare-up in this same conflict, market pricing for a September rate hike jumped enormously in the space of a week. This is the kind of swing that reprices every asset class, not just oil.”
He also points to a pattern that has caught many investors off guard during this conflict, one that runs against the conventional strategy for a geopolitical shock.
“Most retail investors fall into the same trap here. They assume gold automatically protects them when a war like this escalates,” says Nigel Green.
“It hasn’t worked that way this year. Gold has actually fallen during periods of this conflict, because rising oil pushed inflation expectations higher, which pushed rate expectations higher, which made a non-yielding asset like gold less attractive to hold.
“The obvious hedge has repeatedly failed to behave like one.”
Independent economic modelling underscores the scale of what is at stake if prices hold at current levels.
“A sustained Brent price near $80 a barrel could shave more than half a percentage point off global growth while adding over a full percentage point to global inflation on an annualized basis,” says Nigel Green.
“Today’s prices are already above that line, and the fighting just restarted.”
Despite the warning, Nigel Green is careful to state this as a case for preparation rather than panic.
“None of this means investors should panic.
“It means they should stop assuming any single asset will save them and start building a portfolio that can absorb a shock like this without relying on one instrument to do all the work.”
He says the real risk lies less in the conflict itself, rather than in how quickly markets forget it.
“Complacency should worry investors here far more than conflict itself. Wars in this region have flared and paused for months now, and each pause has tempted markets back into assuming the risk has passed,” says Nigel Green.
“It hasn’t passed. It’s simply been waiting for the next spark, and today supplied one.”
The deVere CEO concludes: “Investors should treat this spike as confirmation, not surprise.
“The risk premium in energy was always going to return the moment this conflict resumed, and portfolios built on the assumption of lasting peace in this region need to be stress-tested against the reality that peace here has proven fragile every single time.”
deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of offices around the world, more than 80,000 clients, and $14bn under advisement.