Source: Cotality
New Zealand’s housing market remains firmly in buyers’ favour, with sales activity continuing to weaken and property values showing little sign of a broad-based recovery. Investor sentiment has also weakened, with purchasing by mortgaged multiple-property owners declining for a second consecutive quarter.
Cotality’s NZ Monthly Housing Chart Pack shows there were 6,829 residential property sales across New Zealand in June, down 4.0% compared to the same month last year, marking the sixth consecutive monthly decline in transaction volumes. Over the first six months of 2026, sales activity was 4.2% lower than the corresponding period in 2025.
Cotality NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson said softer sales volumes are helping to keep listing stock elevated by historical standards, providing buyers with greater choice and strengthening their negotiating position.
“The balance of power has shifted. Buyers have options, time on their side, and in many cases the ability to negotiate harder than we’ve seen for several years.”
“There’s no obvious catalyst for a sharp turnaround at present. With listings still elevated and economic uncertainty lingering, we expect market conditions to remain relatively subdued through the second half of the year.”
First home buyers remain dominant
First home buyers remain one of the most active buyer groups in the market, continuing a trend that has been evident for some time.
In contrast, purchasing activity from mortgaged multiple property owners, including many smaller-scale or ‘mum and dad’ investors, has eased in recent months.
Investors continue to face several challenges, including subdued rental growth and higher ownership costs. Uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election is also influencing decision-making, with some investors concerned about the potential for changes to property tax settings under a future government.
“Investor sentiment has become more cautious,” said Mr Davidson.
“While housing remains an attractive long-term asset for many New Zealanders, some investors are closely monitoring the policy environment and considering how potential regulatory, or tax changes could affect returns and cash flow.”
“A potential capital gains tax is a concern for investors. But many are perhaps even more worried about the risk of interest deductibility being phased out again.”
Market outlook
Looking ahead, the outlook for the second half of 2026 remains relatively subdued.
While slightly stronger population growth on the back of net migration, broadly stable employment and lower mortgage rates than those seen at the peak of the recent cycle continue to provide support for housing demand, elevated listings and cautious buyer behaviour are expected to keep conditions balanced.
“The housing market is currently lacking a strong catalyst for a sustained upswing,” Mr Davidson concluded.
“As a result, the second half of 2026 is likely to look similar to the first, with modest sales activity and generally flat property values across much of the country.”
Cotality’s NZ Monthly Housing Chart Pack shows there were 6,829 residential property sales across New Zealand in June, down 4.0% compared to the same month last year, marking the sixth consecutive monthly decline in transaction volumes. Over the first six months of 2026, sales activity was 4.2% lower than the corresponding period in 2025.
Cotality NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson said softer sales volumes are helping to keep listing stock elevated by historical standards, providing buyers with greater choice and strengthening their negotiating position.
“The balance of power has shifted. Buyers have options, time on their side, and in many cases the ability to negotiate harder than we’ve seen for several years.”
“There’s no obvious catalyst for a sharp turnaround at present. With listings still elevated and economic uncertainty lingering, we expect market conditions to remain relatively subdued through the second half of the year.”
First home buyers remain dominant
First home buyers remain one of the most active buyer groups in the market, continuing a trend that has been evident for some time.
In contrast, purchasing activity from mortgaged multiple property owners, including many smaller-scale or ‘mum and dad’ investors, has eased in recent months.
Investors continue to face several challenges, including subdued rental growth and higher ownership costs. Uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election is also influencing decision-making, with some investors concerned about the potential for changes to property tax settings under a future government.
“Investor sentiment has become more cautious,” said Mr Davidson.
“While housing remains an attractive long-term asset for many New Zealanders, some investors are closely monitoring the policy environment and considering how potential regulatory, or tax changes could affect returns and cash flow.”
“A potential capital gains tax is a concern for investors. But many are perhaps even more worried about the risk of interest deductibility being phased out again.”
Market outlook
Looking ahead, the outlook for the second half of 2026 remains relatively subdued.
While slightly stronger population growth on the back of net migration, broadly stable employment and lower mortgage rates than those seen at the peak of the recent cycle continue to provide support for housing demand, elevated listings and cautious buyer behaviour are expected to keep conditions balanced.
“The housing market is currently lacking a strong catalyst for a sustained upswing,” Mr Davidson concluded.
“As a result, the second half of 2026 is likely to look similar to the first, with modest sales activity and generally flat property values across much of the country.”