Source: Radio New Zealand
Analysis: Christopher Luxon’s Cabinet reshuffle made two things very clear on Thursday.
Firstly, that the Prime Minister doesn’t trust one of his most competent ministers enough to leave him in charge of his party’s election campaign.
And secondly, he’s become aware New Zealand First and Act are doing a better job of winning over the rural vote.
Those two realisations resulted in Chris Bishop being unceremoniously dumped as campaign chair just seven months out from the election, and first-term MP – the relatively unknown Wairarapa farmer Mike Butterick – being thrust into a ministerial role.
Luxon seemed surprised that his ditching Bishop for Simeon Brown as campaign chair would be a talking point.
Asked for the rationale he pointed to the “workload” Bishop was under.
While Bishop is one of the busiest ministers in Cabinet, that was also the case when he was given the role of campaign chair in the first place.
When RNZ asked Luxon who was busier, Bishop or Brown, the prime minister’s workload rationale crumbled when he declared they were both busy.
He’s right, while Bishop is in charge of housing, transport, RMA reform and infrastructure, Brown has the thankless job of being Health Minister and now has energy – one of the biggest issues in town – on his plate.
It’s a nonsense to say Brown has more time for campaign chair, but Luxon is hardly going to say he’s moving Bishop aside because he’s sceptical of how supportive the Hutt South MP is of his leadership.
Simeon Brown is Health Minister and now also has the energy portfolio. RNZ / Mark Papalii
Bishop has had a demotion target on his back ever since rumours swirled at the end of last year that he was considering making a move for the leadership.
It was his former staffer, friend, and ministerial colleague James Meager speculated to have been doing the numbers for him, and as a result has suffered a similar fate to Bishop and been overlooked for a move into Cabinet.
Brown is a political animal and is a good alternative pick for campaign chair, especially when you pair it with his energy portfolio that is bound to be a big election issue.
National was able to form a government in 2023 under Bishop, so the pressure is on Brown to pull off the same result.
That’s no easy ask when the party is polling around 29-31 percent and with a leader who has favourability wallowing in the negatives.
As for the meteoric rise of Butterick, that was the ministerial promotion nobody saw coming.
Butterick is a farmer through and through, he calls a spade a spade, and talks to everyday New Zealanders in a way many ministers could only dream of.
New Zealand First and Act have been steadily working away on the rural vote in recent years and National has clearly clocked it needs to up its presence in that regard.
Luxon will be hoping by giving an MP like Butterick a public profile as a minister outside of Cabinet it will show the farming community he’s taking their vote seriously.
One of the other surprising Luxon calls on Thursday was the decision to promote Penny Simmonds into Cabinet.
This is the same minister who was stripped of the Disability Issues portfolio in January 2024 after bungling funding changes in the first five months in the job.
Simmonds does hail from the South Island and with Cabinet short on representation from that part of the country it’s possible it went a long way toward her promotion.
Any reshuffle leaves MPs a mixture of disappointed, surprised, and elated – and don’t forget the ministerial staffers waiting to find out if they still have a job.
The long Easter weekend will provide time for wounds to be licked and celebrations to be had – the last minute passing of public holiday alcohol laws couldn’t have come at a better time.
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
