Source: The Treasury
The Treasury has published four analytical papers to support the Treasury’s 2025 Long-term Fiscal Statement (LTFS). These papers contribute to the evidence base underpinning public discussion of New Zealand’s long-term fiscal sustainability.
- An overlapping generations model to investigate the fiscal implications of New Zealand’s ageing population (WP 26/01): https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/wp/wp-26-01 (Andrew Binning, Murat Özbilgin and Christie Smith)
- Transnationalism and tax payments among the foreign-born (AN 26/02): https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/an/an-26-02 (Tim Hughes)
- Raising taxes to fund health and pensions in an ageing New Zealand – Alternative tax bases (AN 26/03): https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/an/an-26-03 (Andrew Binning, Murat Özbilgin, Christie Smith and Hanna Vu)
- Raising taxes to fund health and pensions in an ageing New Zealand – Alternative labour tax progressivity (AN 26/04): https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/an/an-26-04 (Andrew Binning, Murat Özbilgin, Christie Smith and Hanna Vu)
The LTFS considers a wide range of possible responses to long-term fiscal pressures, including changes to revenue and expenditure. The background papers published today provide more technical detail on modelling approaches and policy scenarios, complementing the material presented in the LTFS.
These publications examine the fiscal implications of an ageing population, transnational migration patterns, and consider alternative tax strategies to meet impending fiscal pressures. The Treasury’s newly-developed overlapping generations model is documented in a Working Paper and two of the Analytical Notes investigate strategies for reforming tax policies to maintain fiscal sustainability. The fourth paper uses descriptive statistics to explore the transnational dynamics of migration and the fiscal contributions of foreign-born residents.
The views, opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in these papers are strictly those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the New Zealand Treasury or the New Zealand Government. The New Zealand Treasury and the New Zealand Government take no responsibility for any errors or omissions in, or for the correctness of, the information contained in these papers. The papers are presented not as policy, but with a view to inform and stimulate wider debate.
