Source: Deep Sea Mining Campaign (DSMC)
The Deep Sea Mining Campaign (DSMC) has today released Shifting Tides, a new briefing paper analysing The Metals Company’s (TMC) plan to mine the Pacific Ocean via the U.S. Deep Seabed Hard Minerals Resources Act (DSHMRA). The paper finds that TMC’s proposed pivot introduces significant regulatory uncertainties, and heightens financial, legal, and regulatory risk for investors.
Drawing on TMC’s own filings, investor presentations, and pre-feasibility study, the briefing concludes that the U.S. licensing pathway is far more complex than TMC likes to suggest. Even in the most optimistic scenario, the process is likely to take at least 18 months, and could face administrative delays or legal challenges.
“The regulatory pathway is uncertain, politically exposed, and wholly dependent on support in Washington that cannot be guaranteed over time. Investors should be wary of assuming this shift resolves any of the risks that have dogged the project for years,” said Andy Whitmore, Finance Advocacy Officer at the Deep Sea Mining Campaign.
Shifting Tides also highlights serious questions about TMC’s own financial viability, including:
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Over-reliance on untested regulatory processes under DSHMRA
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Political dependencies that introduce significant volatility
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Questionable assumptions in revenue projections
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Underestimating costs, including royalties payments
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Ongoing uncertainties around the feasibility of commercial-scale nodule extraction and processing.
Rather than stabilising the company’s trajectory, TMC’s U.S. pivot appears to introduce new political, legal, and commercial vulnerabilities. This includes a major red flag whether minerals and metals produced via this pathway could be in breach of international law, affecting a range of non-US partners.
“TMC’s own filings acknowledge political fragility and the possibility of delays. Investors should understand that this pivot is not the solution Gerard Barron wants you to believe it is,” adds Whitmore.
Shifting Tides provides a detailed assessment of these risks and analyses what the U.S. pathway might mean for timelines, market confidence, and the deep sea mining industry.
The briefing paper is available at this link: https://dsm-campaign.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Shifting-Tides-TMCs-U.S.-Pivot.pdf?utm_source=media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=tmc_us_pivot
