Source: Radio New Zealand
Ruminant BioTech aims to help solve the global methane emissions problem caused by ruminant animals. Supplied/Ruminant BioTech
Technology, rather than taxing methane emissions, will be what brings New Zealand’s agricultural emissions down, the climate change minister says.
It was “not economically rational” to bring down emissions by reducing the herd size, Simon Watts said.
Watts made the remarks ahead of travelling to Brazil later this week to attend the high-level portion of COP30, the annual global climate summit.
A former climate change commissioner and internationally respected climate scientist, James Renwick, says banking on agritech alone was “risky”. The government should be heading to the summit with a strengthened emissions target, not a weakened one, he said.
The government announced last month it would lower New Zealand’s methane emissions target, from a 24-47 percent reduction by 2050 to a 14-24 percent reduction, after a review found that was sufficient to meet a ‘no additional warming’ goal, advocated for by industry.
The government has also ruled out a tax on agricultural methane. The 2050 net-zero carbon target remains in place for now, with the government due to respond this month to advice from the Climate Change commission to shift to a net-negative target.
Watts said he was prepared to explain the rationale for the new methane target at COP, which is being held in Belém in the Amazon.
“What we will be outlining is the work that we’ve done around the resetting of our targets in that area based on the scientific assessment that we’ve undertaken.”
However, he expected most of the interest would come from countries with similar challenges to New Zealand with agricultural methane emissions.
“If we get questions around that, which will potentially be the case, particularly from other countries that have pastoral farming systems, then we’ll be dialoguing on that.”
Unlike carbon dioxide, which warms the atmosphere for centuries, methane is a short-lived gas but has huge warming potential while it exists.
Reducing methane has attracted growing attention as a way to temporarily curb warming while the world works on technologies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and remove them from the air.
A ‘Methane Summit’ supported by the COP30 presidency was held in Brazil just before the main summit started, calling for the “climate emergency brake” to be pulled by drastically reducing methane emissions from the fossil fuel sector.
Unlike many other countries, though, New Zealand’s methane emissions – which make up half our overall emissions – mostly come from agriculture, where methane reductions are harder-won.
Watts said COP30 would be a chance for New Zealand to share the work it was doing to reduce on-farm methane emissions.
“For example, India has the largest dairy herd in the world. And so they’ll be looking for opportunities to decarbonise their herd as well.”
The government and industry itself was investing significantly in agritech, Watts said.
“That’s why we’re confident that we don’t require a pricing mechanism.”
Among the tech the government is banking on is a New Zealand-developed bolus, or small metal capsule, that delivers a slow-release dose of methane-suppressing medicine in a cow’s body.
The bolus has been delayed but the latest estimate from Ruminant Biotech, its developer, is that it will be available to New Zealand farmers from 2027.
Other technologies, such as vaccines and genetic advances, were also in the pipeline.
Asked if it was a gamble to rely solely on technology, Watts said there was “a risk for anything”.
“The bigger risk that I’m concerned about is not having any options available that reduce emissions and only having a pricing mechanism, because the only way, therefore, to reduce emissions is to reduce the herd size tangibly, and that’s just not an economically rational place to be at.”
There was still a financial incentive for farmers without a methane tax, he said.
“The majority of these interventions increase productivity as well as reduce emissions and that is the best shot that we have of increasing uptake, because farmers want to increase productivity because we’re an export country.”
But James Renwick, who was among dozens of scientists who signed an open letter earlier this year urging against a weaker methane target, said he did not expect other countries at COP would be impressed with New Zealand’s new approach to methane.
“Countries are supposed to show up in Belém with stronger emissions targets to what they had before, and we are not doing that.
“It matters in terms of our international stature, our voice on the global stage being diminished. And it matters for our trade relationships as many countries are looking for ‘green’ imports, so we may be shut out of markets over time.”
Professor James Renwick of Victoria University Supplied
Officials from the Pacific have already criticised the weakened target.
New Zealand should not be relying on unproven future technologies alone, Dr Renwick said.
“One or several may work at scale in the paddock. But we cannot say right now if that will happen.
“Banking on this as the solution to agricultural emissions is risky. In the meantime, some reduction in farming intensity would definitely reduce emissions.”
The other risk from New Zealand’s lower target was that it gave permission to other countries with similar economies to follow suit, Dr Renwick said.
“Obvious candidates are Ireland and Uruguay as they have similar reliance on agriculture, but several others may follow.”
While at COP, Simon Watts said he would also support Australia and Pacific Island nations’ joint bid to host COP31 next year.
The Australia-Pacific bid faces a rival bid from Turkey, and COP’s consensus decision-making process requires one or the other to be withdrawn.
If both parties refuse to yield, then hosting will revert to Bonn in Germany.
“I … anticipate to spend quite a bit of time with our Pacific and Australian counterparts to hopefully lock down Australia’s hosting for COP next year, which will have a Pacific focus,” Watts said.
COPs were an important moment “in the context of geopolitical fragmentation”, he said.
“[It’s] the single biggest opportunity for governments and business to come together to discuss and look at opportunities in the area of climate change, and so it’s important for me to be part of that.”
The New Zealand delegation will also include Labour’s climate change spokesperson Deborah Russell. Green Party climate spokesperson and co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick attended alongside Watts last year.
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
