Subnational population projections: 2023(base)–2053 – Stats NZ information release

25 September 2025

Subnational population projections indicate the future size and age-sex structure of the population of New Zealand’s 16 regional council areas, 67 territorial authority areas, and 21 Auckland local board areas based on different combinations of fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions, and current policy settings. All data cited here relate to June years.

Key facts

The medium projection indicates:

• all regions except the West Coast are likely to have more people in 2053 than in 2023
• Selwyn district is likely to be the fastest-growing territorial authority area, increasing by an average of 2.3 percent per year; the fastest-growing local board area is Franklin (2.1 percent per year), and the fastest-growing region is the Bay of Plenty (1.1 percent per year)
• Auckland could account for 44 percent of New Zealand’s growth between 2023 and 2053, and when combined with the rest of the upper North Island (Northland, Waikato, and Bay of Plenty regions), this area could account for 69 percent of New Zealand’s growth
• Auckland’s population could reach 2 million around 2033
• deaths will likely outnumber births in just over two-thirds of territorial authority areas by 2053
• all but two territorial authority areas (Chatham Islands territory and Waimate district) could have a smaller proportion of children in 2053 than in 2023.

Visit our website to read this information release:

For media enquiries contact: Media team, Wellington, media@stats.govt.nz“>media@stats.govt.nz, 021 285 9191

The Government Statistician authorises all statistics and data we publish.