Source: BusinessNZ
The BusinessNZ Planning Forecast for the June quarter indicates the NZ economy will likely grow at nearly 3% by 2027, however it is facing strong headwinds caused by international and domestic issues.
BusinessNZ economist John Pask says the uncertain, rapidly-changing international environment is affecting New Zealand’s trade and economic prospects.
“Not just war and threats of war, but also threats to trade and the international trade rules-based order are bringing uncertainty and caution.
“NZ is a trading nation, linked to the rest of the world by key markets, supply chains and global investment flows, and vulnerable to economic shocks and international tensions. Forecasts of future growth will be heavily conditional on world events,” Mr Pask said.
“Domestically, there is some good news, as statistics indicate GDP improvement, inflation is still contained, lower interest rates are reducing the pressure on businesses and households, dairy and meat prices are positive, and the Government’s moves to allow greater deductions on business purchases and address poor regulation are all positive.”
The BusinessNZ Economic Conditions Index (ECI), a measure of NZ’s major economic indicators, sits at 8 for the June 2025 quarter, an improvement of 2 on the previous quarter, and an improvement of 12 on a year ago.
An ECI reading above 0 indicates that economic conditions are generally improving overall; below 0 means economic conditions are generally declining.
