RBNZ stats alert: 14 May 2025 – Kia ora koutou, On 21 May 2025 we will be launching the Tara-ā-Umanga Business Expectations Survey (BES), publishing results for the June quarter. Publication will be in advance of the 28 May Monetary Policy Statement, in line with the timing of our other expectations surveys.
We would like to thank all the businesses that have made the development and launch of the new Tara-ā-Umanga Business Expectations Survey possible and enabled us to build a representative sample survey of New Zealand businesses.
This new survey includes several hundred businesses from different sectors around the country, from small to large firms. It is separate from the existing Survey of Expectations focusing on expert forecasters and economists, and industry leaders (Table M14, from 1987 onwards), which will continue.
Business Expectations Survey publication on 21 May, after 3pm
The launch of BES marks the beginning of the regular quarterly publication of the survey and the conclusion of a successful development phase that involved public consultation and pilots to build the sample and test content and methodology. The launch will feature a new web table with population estimates of economy-wide expectations:
M15 Business Expectations Survey
The sample size and design enable new breakdowns by business size and industry, which will be published in the data file accompanying Table M15. The initial publication will include our Stats Insight, a background note as a guide to interpret the new survey results, and a description of our survey methodology.
It should be noted that while this survey represents a significant uplift in our expectations data, more observations are needed (beyond the short historical timeseries that will be available at launch) to enable us to estimate the relationship between these data and ultimate inflation outcomes. We anticipate that the results of this survey will become key statistical series used by central banks, researchers, financial institutions and commentators.
Background information
Inflation expectations are important because households and businesses reflect their expectations in their price- and wage-setting decisions. Improving the quality of our expectation surveys is part of the wider response to our 2022 review of how we formulate and implement our monetary policy. In this review, we identified several areas where better data could support high quality monetary policy decision-making.
For further information please see: Tara-ā-Umanga Business Expectations Survey: Survey design and development: https://govt.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=bd316aa7ee4f5679c56377819&id=b66e552e95&e=f3c68946f8
RBNZ’s existing expectations surveys:
Survey of expectations (M14): https://govt.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=bd316aa7ee4f5679c56377819&id=16ac7517ae&e=f3c68946f8
Household inflation expectations (H1): https://govt.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=bd316aa7ee4f5679c56377819&id=da9067ab97&e=f3c68946f8
Additional wholesale interest rate data now being published
From 12 May 2025, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand – Te Pūtea Matua began publishing two new daily series on Table B2, making more data available on wholesale interest rates that apply to large institutions in New Zealand markets.
The new daily series on Table B2 are:
Overnight Deposit Rate: the rate of remuneration ESAS account holders receive for funds that are held overnight in their account at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand – Te Pūtea Matua. For further information please see: What is ESAS
Overnight Reverse Repo Rate: the rate that is charged to borrow funds lent overnight via the Reserve Bank’s Overnight Reverse Repo Facility (ORRF). For further information on the key standing facilities provided to market participants, including the ORRF, please see: Facilities at a glance – Reserve Bank of New Zealand – Te Pūtea Matua
This data will add to the wide range of information that is available to support the analysis of the New Zealand financial system and understanding the transmission of monetary policy through wholesale interest rates quoted in New Zealand markets.
