10/03/2025 – Covering period of Monday 10th – Thursday 13th March – MetService is forecasting a week of weather ups and downs, with a settled start giving way to wetter and windier conditions midweek before a recovery in time for week’s end. Temperatures will follow this rollercoaster pattern, with a midweek dip across the lower and eastern parts of both islands, bookended by more typical seasonal warmth.
After a mostly dry and settled Monday for much of the country, rain jackets will be needed by Tuesday and Wednesday as wet and windy conditions return to the South Island, including the possibility of thunderstorms in the far south. The rain and showers will spread to the North Island on Wednesday before mostly clearing by Thursday evening.
MetService meteorologist Mmathapelo Makgabutlane explains, “Fiordland, Southland, Clutha, and Dunedin are set to bear the brunt of the wet weather. While rainfall totals are currently expected to stay below severe weather thresholds, it’s worth keeping an eye on metservice.com for any updates should that change.”
Meanwhile, winds are set to strengthen in the far south on Tuesday. Strong Wind Watches are in place for southern Fiordland, Southland (including Stewart Island), and Clutha, where gusts could reach 100 km/h in exposed areas.
Temperatures start the week with much of the country sitting in the low to mid-20s and parts of Central Otago climbing into the mid to high 20s today. However, by Wednesday, a surge of strong, chilly southwesterlies will push temperatures down into the teens for the lower and eastern regions of both islands. By Friday, however, warmth returns, with most places rebounding to the 20s.
“Once we hit autumn, those temperature recoveries after chilly spells start to take longer and eventually cooler days become the norm. Thankfully, we are not quite there yet and there are some warmer days in store for us by the end of the week,” Makgabutlane says.
For media enquiries or to arrange an interview with one of our meteorologists please call 04 4700 848 or email metcomms@metservice.com
Understanding MetService Severe Weather Warning System
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Localised Red Warning) – take cover now:
This warning is a red warning for a localised area.
When extremely severe weather is occurring or will do within the hour.
Severe thunderstorms have the ability to have significant impacts for an area indicated in the warning.
In the event of a Severe Thunderstorm Red Warning: Act now!
Red Warnings are about taking immediate action:
When extremely severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Issued when an event is expected to be among the worst that we get – it will have significant impact and it is possible that a lot of people will be affected
In the event of a Red Warning: Act now!
Orange Warnings are about taking action:
When severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather
In the event of an Orange Warning: Take action.
Thunderstorm Watch means thunderstorms are possible, be alert and consider action
Show the area that thunderstorms are most likely to occur during the validity period.
Although thunderstorms are often localised, the whole area is on watch as it is difficult to know exactly where the severe thunderstorm will occur within the mapped area.
During a thunderstorm Watch: Stay alert and take action if necessary.
Watches are about being alert:
When severe weather is possible, but not sufficiently imminent or certain for a warning to be issued
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather.
During a Watch: Stay alert
Outlooks are about looking ahead:
To provide advanced information on possible future Watches and/or Warnings
Issued routinely once or twice a day
Recommendation: Plan.
