The interim Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand for the five months ended 30 November 2024 were released by the Treasury today.
The November results are reported against forecasts based on the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2024 (HYEFU 2024), published on 17 December 2024, and the results for the same period for the previous year.
| Year to date | Full Year | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 2024 Actual1 $m |
November 2024 HYEFU 2024 Forecast1 $m |
Variance2 HYEFU 2024 $m |
Variance HYEFU 2024 % |
June 2025 HYEFU 2024 Forecast3 $m |
|
| Core Crown tax revenue | 49,260 | 49,261 | (1) | – | 120,623 |
| Core Crown revenue | 54,862 | 54,864 | (2) | – | 134,038 |
| Core Crown expenses | 57,835 | 58,025 | 190 | 0.3 | 144,638 |
| Core Crown residual cash | (6,450) | (5,887) | (563) | (9.6) | (16,610) |
| Net core Crown debt4 | 181,670 | 181,251 | (419) | (0.2) | 192,810 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 43.1% | 43.0% | 45.1% | ||
| Gross debt | 192,147 | 191,466 | (681) | (0.4) | 206,558 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 45.6% | 45.4% | 48.3% | ||
| OBEGAL | (4,744) | (4,688) | (56) | (1.2) | (17,317) |
| OBEGAL excluding ACC (OBEGALx) | (3,933) | (3,909) | (24) | (0.6) | (12,868) |
| Operating balance (excluding minority interests) | (145) | (1,864) | 1,719 | 92.2 | (10,161) |
| Net worth | 187,494 | 185,931 | 1,563 | 0.8 | 177,492 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 44.5% | 44.1% | 41.5% | ||
- Using the most recently published GDP (for the year ended 30 September 2024) of $421,702 million (Source: Stats NZ).
- Favourable variances against forecast have a positive sign and unfavourable variances against forecast have a negative sign.
- Using HYEFU 2024 forecast GDP for the year ending 30 June 2025 of $427,252 million (Source: The Treasury).
- Net core Crown debt excludes the NZS Fund and core Crown advances. Net core Crown debt may fluctuate during the year largely reflecting the timing of tax receipts.
Core Crown tax revenue at $49.3 billion was in line with forecast, with GST being $0.2 billion (1.5%) above forecast, mainly offset by source deduction tax revenue which was $0.2 billion (0.7%) below forecast.
Core Crown expenses at $57.8 billion were $0.2 billion below forecast. The variance is mostly timing in nature and reflects multiple small variances across a range of functional classifications.
Both the operating balance before gains and losses (OBEGAL) and the operating balance before gains and losses excluding ACC revenue and expenses (OBEGALx) deficits were close to forecast at $4.7 billion and $3.9 billion respectively.
The operating balance deficit of $0.1 billion was $1.7 billion less than the deficit forecast. This is largely owing to the variances to forecast in net gains and losses for the five months to November 2024, with net gains on financial instruments $1.1 billion higher than forecast and net losses on non-financial instruments $0.6 billion smaller than forecast.
The core Crown residual cash deficit of $6.5 billion compared to a forecast deficit of $5.9 billion. This resulted in an unfavourable variance of $0.6 billion and reflects earlier than forecast personnel and operating payments. This was marginally offset by higher than forecast tax receipts.
Net core Crown debt at $181.7 billion (43.1% of GDP), was broadly in line with forecast net core Crown debt at $181.3 billion (43.0% of GDP). The nominal increase reflects additional borrowing to fund the higher than forecast core Crown residual cash deficit.
Gross debt at $192.1 billion (45.6% of GDP) was $0.7 billion higher than forecast largely owing to higher than forecast issuance of government stock due to the timing of debt issuance.
Net worth at $187.5 billion (44.5% of GDP), was $1.6 billion higher than forecast and largely reflects the operating balance results.
