Covering period of Monday 9 – Thursday 12 December – After a wildly windy and occasionally wet weekend, MetService is forecasting a shift to typical summer weather for the start of the working week.
The past 24 hours have been somewhat extreme as a front swept northwards over the South Island and southern North Island, resulting in damaging gale northwesterly winds and a band of heavy rain in the west. Warnings had been in place and wind gusts reached 148 km/h at Mt Kaukau, 113 km/h in Wellington City itself. Hot, dry northwesterlies gusted 109 km/h in Kaikōura and Culverden, and pushed the temperature in Timaru up to 31.8 °C. Accompanying the front, about 220 mm of rain fell on the Tararua Range between 7pm on Sunday and 8am this morning.
Rain is forecast to continue spreading northwards over central and northern North Island areas today, with heavy falls and thunderstorms possible over Waikato and inland Bay of Plenty. A Heavy Rain Watch is in place for the Bay of Plenty ranges east of Ōpōtiki from 4pm today until 6am on Tuesday morning, when rain passes to the north of the motu and skies clear.
A showery westerly flow continues to push on to the South Island west coast today, resulting in further hot, dry northwesterly winds east of the Southern Alps.
MetService meteorologist Ngaire Wotherspoon comments, “While winds in Canterbury and other eastern regions today won’t be as strong as they were over the weekend, they still contribute to a heightened fire risk.”
These hot and dry conditions aren’t relieving any time soon, and the next couple of days bring a spell of typical summer weather. Clear skies and light winds are forecast for central Aotearoa New Zealand, while bursts of rain remain over the south and west of the South Island. Conditions remain dry and hot in the east of the country.
Wotherspoon elaborates, “Daytime temperatures are forecast to reach the mid-to-high twenties in Canterbury and Marlborough for the rest of the week, as well as further north in Hawke’s Bay. Fire danger is on the rise with the beginning of summer, and it is recommended that anyone planning on lighting a fire or doing anything that could cause a spark – especially in these dry eastern areas – consult checkitsalright.nz first.”
Thursday brings warm and wet weather to the North Island as a low-pressure system descends from the northwest, and temperatures in the east are forecast to surge into the low thirties by the end of the working week.
Understanding MetService Severe Weather Warning System
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Localised Red Warning) – take cover now:
This warning is a red warning for a localised area.
When extremely severe weather is occurring or will do within the hour.
Severe thunderstorms have the ability to have significant impacts for an area indicated in the warning.
In the event of a Severe Thunderstorm Red Warning: Act now!
Red Warnings are about taking immediate action:
When extremely severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Issued when an event is expected to be among the worst that we get – it will have significant impact and it is possible that a lot of people will be affected
In the event of a Red Warning: Act now!
Orange Warnings are about taking action:
When severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather
In the event of an Orange Warning: Take action.
Thunderstorm Watch means thunderstorms are possible, be alert and consider action
Show the area that thunderstorms are most likely to occur during the validity period.
Although thunderstorms are often localised, the whole area is on watch as it is difficult to know exactly where the severe thunderstorm will occur within the mapped area.
During a thunderstorm Watch: Stay alert and take action if necessary.
Watches are about being alert:
When severe weather is possible, but not sufficiently imminent or certain for a warning to be issued
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather.
During a Watch: Stay alert
Outlooks are about looking ahead:
To provide advanced information on possible future Watches and/or Warnings
Issued routinely once or twice a day
Recommendation: Plan.
