Source: Climate Change Commission
- The report looks at how well current emissions reductions policies and plans, up until April 2024, set the country up to meet its climate goals.
- This is the first monitoring report the Commission has produced, and reports will now be delivered to the Minister of Climate Change annually.
- The report shows emissions have declined in recent years, however it also shows more work is needed to meet Aotearoa New Zealand’s climate goals and international commitments.
- Overall, the country appears to be on track to meet the first emissions budget. However, this is highly uncertain, because several risk factors could tip the balance.
The Minister of Climate Change today released the Commission’s 2024 emissions reduction monitoring report. It is the first in what will be an annual series of reports the Commission will deliver, which track year-on-year how the country is progressing towards meeting its emissions budgets and targets.
Dr Carr says the report provides an evidence-based, impartial view of whether the country is on course to reach its goals for reducing and removing greenhouse gas emissions.
“The report released today shows Aotearoa New Zealand is making some good progress towards meeting emissions budgets, with emissions declining in recent years,” Dr Carr says.
“This was partly because New Zealanders increasingly adopted low emissions technology and took actions that made a difference. Examples include building new renewable generation facilities, converting boilers to biomass and electric power, choosing to drive more electric and hybrid vehicles, and planting more forests.
“However, the report also shows there is a significant risk that the country won’t meet future emissions budgets. There is an urgent need to ensure Aotearoa New Zealand’s climate policies will put the country on track.
“Our assessment highlights particular risk to sufficient emissions cuts from the agriculture and transport sectors.”
The annual monitoring reports are a critical part of the wider system that was created to help shape Aotearoa New Zealand’s efforts to tackle and adapt to climate change. The report released today covers what progress has been made, what challenges the country is experiencing, and what opportunities and risks need to be considered in policy decisions.
“This report shows current emissions data and projections indicate the country is on track to meet the first emissions budget. However, there are several uncertainties and risks that could change this, such as if deforestation is higher than projected, if a dry year increases electricity sector emissions, or if transport emissions continuing to grow as they did in 2023,” Dr Carr says.
“There are also significant risks the second and third budgets may not be met.”
While emissions fell steeply in 2022, around 94% of that reduction was strongly influenced by factors outside of government control, such as good hydro conditions, high fossil fuel prices, and general economic conditions.
“The areas that could have the biggest impact for driving down emissions are in decarbonising electricity supply, decarbonising industry, reducing on-farm emissions, adopting low and zero-emissions vehicles, and land use change to forestry. Together, these could deliver around three quarters of what’s needed for the second and third emissions budget,” Dr Carr says.
The Commission has been tasked by Parliament to deliver monitoring reports annually to build the bigger picture for decision-makers.
The Commission draws on official data and projections including the New Zealand Greenhouse Gas Inventory, an official Tier 1 statistic, to inform the monitoring report.
“While there are many different data sources available, a key part of our monitoring role is providing an accurate and regular benchmark,” Dr Carr says.
“Over time, we will provide a series of snapshots that build a picture for New Zealand to track progress against.
“This monitoring report is not just a report card with data and assessments.
“It also identifies opportunities to reduce emissions further, pick up the pace, and improve the lives of New Zealanders – particularly people most affected by climate change, or by lack of action to tackle them.
“The Commission has been clear in all its work that the Government has choices on how to act – and our monitoring report helps decision-makers understand different choices, and how they add up.”
Coming up in early August, the Commission will also deliver its first national adaptation plan progress report to the Minister of Climate Change. The report looks at the first adaptation plan – released in 2022 – to assess how effective it is and how its implementation is progressing. That report will be delivered every two years.
The annual emissions reductions monitoring reports will provide a series of snapshots that build a picture over time of how the country is tracking. There will also be reports at the end of each five-year emissions budget period, providing a close evaluation of progress made in that time. The first of these is due in 2027, two years after the end of the first emissions budget period (2022-2025).
The monitoring report will provide our first baseline of current climate efforts. It gives that first snapshot in time of whether the country is on track to meet its climate goals, so the Government, New Zealanders and communities can make informed choices with future decisions.
- official data on greenhouse gas emissions up to 2022 from New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory (the Commission is required by the CCRA to use the Inventory as base data as it is New Zealand’s Tier 1, official source of greenhouse gas data)
- provisional estimates of gross emissions in 2023
- latest projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and removals
- an assessment of current government emissions reduction policies and plans (as at April 2024), which looks at how well they set up the country to meet its climate change goals
- information about a range of opportunities to make further progress towards those goals, including within specific sectors.
The emissions reduction monitoring report answers four key questions:
- What progress have we seen in emission reductions to date?
- How is the country tracking towards meeting the first emissions budget for 2022-2025?
- How is the country tracking towards meeting future emissions budgets and the 2050 target?
- What is needed for Aotearoa New Zealand to be on track for future emissions budgets and the 2050 target?
The Commission drew on well-regarded monitoring systems here and overseas, including those used by independent climate bodies, to develop its approach for the report. The methodology was reviewed by independent experts, and the research, evidence and analysis drew on the Commission’s existing independent advisory work.
