Source: NIWA
The Seasonal Climate Outlook for January – March 2024.
Highlights:
– El Niño has around a 100% chance of persisting through March. Although it will have an influence on Aotearoa New Zealand’s climate, unusual ocean heat has contributed to circulation patterns that are not historically associated with El Niño
– We expect more northwesterly quarter winds than normal across the country, with wind strength forecast to be above normal in the South Island and lower North Island
– There may be a period of heavy rain in mid-to-late January, particularly for the North Island and northern South Island
– According to the New Zealand Drought Index, several regions were experiencing unusual dryness as of early January. This may contribute to water restrictions
– Temperatures are likely to be above average in the west of the South Island and highly likely to be above average elsewhere.
