Covering period of Thu 09 – Mon 13 November – A large area of high pressure moves on to the country tomorrow (Friday) and MetService is forecasting a run of settled weather across Aotearoa / New Zealand. The next band of rain arrives in the southwest of the South Island on Sunday.
Settled weather is on the way but this afternoon there’s risk of a few heavy showers popping up in the afternoon and evening for the Southern Alps and higher parts of Marlborough and Nelson, Bay of Plenty is also at risk of some heavier showers this Thursday afternoon.
MetService meteorologist Lewis Ferris states: “On Friday the area of high pressure really starts to take over and keeps most of the country dry, there may be a couple showers skirting around the coastline but these will be isolated and short lived.”
Saturday is also looking mostly settled but northerly winds start to increase in speed around the Fiordland coast with rain becoming more likely at Milford Sound as the day progresses.
On Sunday the band of rain moves onto the far south and the strong northwest winds start to spread up the South Island. Our Severe Weather Outlook has a few regions covered with varying risk of wind and/or rain reaching our severe weather criteria.
The North Island is in for a mostly dry and settled weekend, as the band of rain isn’t forecast to reach there before Tuesday.
Our station at Alexandra Airport only reached 14.9°C this past Wednesday but the return of the northerly winds has us forecasting a high of 25°C on Saturday.
Understanding MetService Severe Weather Warning System
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Localised Red Warning) – take cover now:
This warning is a red warning for a localised area.
When extremely severe weather is occurring or will do within the hour.
Severe thunderstorms have the ability to have significant impacts for an area indicated in the warning.
In the event of a Severe Thunderstorm Red Warning: Act now!
Red Warnings are about taking immediate action:
When extremely severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Issued when an event is expected to be among the worst that we get – it will have significant impact and it is possible that a lot of people will be affected
In the event of a Red Warning: Act now!
Orange Warnings are about taking action:
When severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather
In the event of an Orange Warning: Take action.
Thunderstorm Watch means thunderstorms are possible, be alert and consider action
Show the area that thunderstorms are most likely to occur during the validity period.
Although thunderstorms are often localised, the whole area is on watch as it is difficult to know exactly where the severe thunderstorm will occur within the mapped area.
During a thunderstorm Watch: Stay alert and take action if necessary.
Watches are about being alert:
When severe weather is possible, but not sufficiently imminent or certain for a warning to be issued
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather.
During a Watch: Stay alert
Outlooks are about looking ahead:
To provide advanced information on possible future Watches and/or Warnings
Issued routinely once or twice a day
Recommendation: Plan
