Weather News – A warm and wet start, but winter is coming

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Source: MetService

Covering period of Monday 26th – Friday 30th June – MetService is forecasting a warm and wet start to the week for many as a complex area of low pressure affects the country. However, a change in regime is coming at the end of the week as the persistent mild northerlies give way to cold southerlies.
 
Rain or showers are forecast for much of Aotearoa New Zealand today as a band of rain moves eastwards across the country, followed by an unstable showery flow. Thunderstorms are also possible for the north and west of both Islands this afternoon and evening.
 
An Orange Warning for Heavy Rain is in force for the ranges of Westland through to 9pm tonight (Monday).  MetService meteorologist Amy Rossiter said, “86mm of rain has already fallen in Franz Joseph from midday Sunday through to 9am Monday, with a further 30-50mm expected to fall today.”
 
After a prolonged period of rain for Tairāwhiti/ Gisborne, (from Friday 16ththrough to Sunday 25th) which saw over 585mm of rain recorded in the Raukumara Range, and 255mm in Gisborne, a north-easterly flow continues to bring further showers to the region. “Surface flooding and slips are still possible due to how saturated the region is, but rainfall amounts are expected to be well short of warning criteria so no further warnings or watches will be issued,” adds Rossiter.
 
Tomorrow, a low-pressure centre deepens to the east of NZ, which remains slow-moving for a couple days driving strong easterlies and rain with possibly heavy falls into the east from Wairarapa to Canterbury.
 
Late in the week, a series of active and fast-moving fronts approach the country from the Southern Ocean, which will bring a change to wintry conditions. Temperatures are forecast to drop as cold air spreads up the country, and there is the possibility of snow, especially for those higher elevations in the south. “While it is too far out to pinpoint the finer details of the forecast for next week it is looking like a cold and windy start to the school holidays.” Rossiter said.

For media enquiries or to arrange an interview with one of our meteorologists please call 04 4700 848 or email metcomms@metservice.com

Understanding MetService Severe Weather Warning System

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Localised Red Warning) – take cover now:

This warning is a red warning for a localised area.
When extremely severe weather is occurring or will do within the hour.
Severe thunderstorms have the ability to have significant impacts for an area indicated in the warning.
In the event of a Severe Thunderstorm Red Warning: Act now!

Red Warnings are about taking immediate action:

When extremely severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Issued when an event is expected to be among the worst that we get – it will have significant impact and it is possible that a lot of people will be affected
In the event of a Red Warning: Act now!

Orange Warnings are about taking action:

When severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather
In the event of an Orange Warning: Take action.

Thunderstorm Watch means thunderstorms are possible, be alert and consider action

Show the area that thunderstorms are most likely to occur during the validity period.
Although thunderstorms are often localised, the whole area is on watch as it is difficult to know exactly where the severe thunderstorm will occur within the mapped area.
During a thunderstorm Watch: Stay alert and take action if necessary.

Watches are about being alert:

When severe weather is possible, but not sufficiently imminent or certain for a warning to be issued
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather.
During a Watch: Stay alert

Outlooks are about looking ahead:

To provide advanced information on possible future Watches and/or Warnings
Issued routinely once or twice a day
Recommendation: Plan

MIL OSI

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