Source: The Treasury
The interim Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand for the three months ended 30 September 2022 (the financial statements) were released by the Treasury today https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/month-end/interim-financial-statements-government-new-zealand-three-months-ended-30-september-2022
The September results are reported against forecasts based on the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2022 (BEFU 2022), published on 19 May 2022.
| Year to date | Full Year | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September
2022 Actual1 $m |
September
2022 Forecast1 $m |
Variance2 BEFU 2022 $m |
Variance
BEFU 2022 % |
June
2023 Forecast3 $m |
|
| Core Crown tax revenue | 26,667 | 26,800 | (133) | (0.5) | 116,098 |
| Core Crown revenue | 29,498 | 29,215 | 283 | 1.0 | 125,700 |
| Core Crown expenses | 31,155 | 30,912 | (243) | (0.8) | 127,051 |
| Core Crown residual cash | (8,672) | (8,799) | 127 | 1.4 | (29,280) |
| Net debt4 | 71,038 | 66,314 | (4,724) | (7.1) | 74,972 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 19.8% | 18.4% | 18.7% | ||
| Gross debt | 130,271 | 120,409 | (9,862) | (8.2) | 130,219 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 36.2% | 33.5% | 32.4% | ||
| Operating balance before gains and losses | (2,606) | (2,553) | (53) | (2.1) | (6,634) |
| Operating balance (excluding minority interests) | (2,873) | (1,557) | (1,316) | (84.5) | (1,632) |
| Total borrowings | 219,232 | 209,291 | (9,941) | (4.7) | 230,618 |
| Net worth attributable to the Crown | 164,385 | 122,406 | 41,979 | 34.3 | 122,401 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 45.7% | 34.1% | 30.5% | ||
- Using the most recently published GDP (for the year ended 30 June 2022) of $359,476 million (Source: Stats NZ).
- Favourable variances against forecast have a positive sign and unfavourable variances against forecast have a negative sign.
- Using BEFU 2022 forecast GDP for the year ending 30 June 2023 of $401,466 million (Source: The Treasury).
- The net debt indicator includes core Crown advances, Crown entity borrowings and the financial assets and borrowings of the New Zealand Super Fund (NZS Fund). Net core Crown debt (the previous headline indicator) was $138.1 billion (38.4% of GDP) at 30 September 2022, the forecast at 30 September 2022 was $143.1 billion (39.8% of GDP) and the forecast for 30 June 2023 is $163.7 billion (40.8% of GDP).
Core Crown tax revenue for the three months ended 30 September 2022 was close to forecast at $26.7 billion. Continued strength in the labour market has resulted in source deductions being higher the forecast by $0.5 billion, however this was offset by lower than forecast revenue from GST, fuel excise duties and road user charges.
A higher-than-expected interest rate track has meant that overall core Crown revenue were above forecast by $0.3 billion.
Core Crown expenses at $31.2 billion were $0.2 billion (0.8%) above forecast. This was largely driven by higher finance costs and health-related expenses, partially offset by lower than forecast expenditure on housing and economic and industrial services.
The operating balance before gains and losses (OBEGAL) deficit of $2.6 billion was largely in line with forecast. When total gains and losses are added to the OBEGAL result, the operating balance deficit was $2.9 billion, $1.3 billion greater than the deficit forecast, largely reflecting changes in market conditions.
The core Crown residual cash deficit of $8.7 billion was broadly in line with the deficit forecast. Net operating cash flows were $0.4 billion weaker than forecast, spread across a number of areas. While net capital cash flows were lower than forecast by $0.5 billion, largely timing in nature.
As at 30 September 2022, net debt was $71.0 billion (19.8% of GDP), $4.7 billion higher than forecast. The variance is primarily a result of market movements impacting on financial instruments since the completion of the BEFU 2022 forecasts. The stronger residual cash position reported at 30 June 2022 has partly offset the impact from market movements.
Both gross debt ($130.3 billion or 36.2% of GDP) and total borrowing ($219.2 billion), were $9.9 billion higher than forecast due to a range of factors, including derivative liabilities being higher than forecast and higher than expected issuance of borrowings.
Net worth attributable to the Crown at $164.4 billion was $42.0 billion higher than forecast, predominately owing to the stronger starting position, reflecting the results reported at 30 June 2022.
