Source: Northland Regional Council
El Niño is starting to tighten its grip across Taitokerau with Northlanders urged to take action now ahead of what could be a long, dry summer.
Northland Regional Council Monitoring Manager Jason Donaghy says the region’s average rainfall for last month was 62 mm, roughly half the usually expected rainfall for September.
“September river flows for Northland range from ‘below normal’ to ‘extremely low’ across the region.
“River flows are generally lower through eastern, mid-north and southern parts of the region, although there has been some recovery of northwestern levels reflecting September’s rainfall distribution.”
Mr Donaghy says lower September rainfall totals had also contributed to less groundwater recharge. “Most levels are ‘below normal’ or ‘low’ for most of the region for this time of year.
He says regional soil moisture is also below normal for this time of year with most sites now below ‘field capacity’. (Field capacity is the amount of water the soil holds after rain has soaked in and the excess has drained away.)
Earth Science New Zealand’s Climate Outlook for October-December 2026 also indicates that rainfall, soil moisture, and river flows are most likely to be below normal, warning there is a ‘moderate’ risk of drought conditions developing in Northland over the next three months.
It says El Niño’s influence on Northland’s weather patterns is becoming more apparent and is expected to be a dominant driver of climate patterns over that period.
Mr Donaghy says El Niño is expected to peak in late spring or early summer, with the potential for this event to have major impacts and likely to rank among the strongest on record.
He says at this point, although El Niño’s effects are already being felt, the region is effectively at a crossroads in terms of a potential drought. “If we have a dry October and a dry November then we’re likely to slip into a drought in at least parts of Northland.” “We’ll have a pretty good idea by the end of spring.”
However, in the meantime, the council is urging people to think ahead and take a few sensible precautions, a message it often repeats in the lead up to summer in Northland.
“Small steps taken now can make a real difference if the dry conditions develop as forecast.”
For homeowners these include:
- Know where your water comes from and how long your stored supply is likely to last.
- Have a contingency plan in case your usual water supply becomes unavailable.
- Monitor tank levels closely and book refills early, as there can be delays when water haulers get busy.
- Regularly check tanks, pumps, pipes and taps for leaks.
- Keep gutters and tank inlets clear so you can capture rainfall.
- Use washing machines and dishwashers only when you have a full load.
- Take shorter showers and turn off taps when they are not needed.
- Use collected rainwater or suitable household greywater for gardens where it is safe to do so.
- Follow any water restrictions in your area.
More water-saving ideas are available from https://bewaterwise.org.nz/.
On farms and horticultural properties
- Include drought and extended dry conditions in business, feed and water-supply planning.
- Monitor feed, soil moisture and water supplies regularly.
- Identify alternative water and feed sources before they are needed.
- Check troughs, tanks, pumps and pipes for leaks.
- Make early decisions about stock numbers, feed requirements and animal welfare.
- Seek advice early from your industry organisation, veterinarian or farm adviser.
- Plan for the health and welfare of workers, whānau and animals.
If you hold a resource consent to take water
Make sure you:
- Understand and comply with the conditions of your resource consent (if in doubt, contact the Northland Regional Council on 0800 002 004).
- Monitor your water use.
- Check your water reticulation system for leaks and malfunctioning equipment.
- Check Northland Regional Council information regularly during dry periods at www.nrc.govt.nz/drought.