Source: KOF Swiss Economic Institute
Zürich, 25 September 2026, 9:00h CEST
The economists surveyed by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute expect gross domestic product (GDP, adjusted for major sporting events) to grow by 1.7% and 1.6% in 2026 and 2027 respectively. They thus significantly revise their June forecast upward. Investment and exports are also expected to rise more sharply, while expectations regarding unemployment, consumer prices, and exchange rates remain virtually unchanged.
Macroeconomic forecast
The participants of the KOF Consensus Forecast have revised their forecasts for GDP growth in the current year significantly upwards. The consensus figure in September stands at 1.7% (unadjusted for major sporting events: 2.1%); in June, it was still at 0.9% (unadjusted for major sporting events: 1.1%). The forecasts for economic growth in the coming year and in five years’ time have also been revised upwards: forecasters now expect growth rates of 1.6% and 1.7% respectively (June: 1.5% and 1.6%).
Economic experts expect a stronger increase in real fixed investment both this year and next. Forecasts for 2026 have been revised upwards from 0.9% to 1.5%, and those for 2027 from 1.8% to 2.2%. Construction investment has been revised significantly: it is expected to rise by 2.4% this year and by 1.9% next year (June: 1.4% and 1.6%). For investment in equipment, the forecast growth rate averages 1.2% and 2.3% (June: 0.7% and 2.0%). Economists have also significantly raised their expectations regarding developments in foreign trade: compared with the last survey, they have revised their consensus forecast for the current year from 0.5% to 2.5% and for the coming year from 2.0% to 2.3%.
| Macroeconomic variables | 2026 | 2027 | in 5 years | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/2026 | 09/2026 | 06/2026 | 09/2026 | 06/2026 | 09/2026 | |
| Change in real GDP | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Change in real GDP (sport event adjusted) | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Change in real fixed investment | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.2 | ||
| Change in real equipment investment | 0.7 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 2.3 | ||
| Change in real construction investment | 1.4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | ||
| Change in real exports | 0.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.3 | ||
| Change in consumer prices | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Unemployment rate | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
Year-on-year change rate (except unemployment rate)
Inflation and labour market
Compared with the previous survey, the expected inflation rates for all three forecast horizons have been revised downwards. For 2026 and 2027, the participants forecast now average rates of change in the consumer price index of 0.6% and 0.7% (June: 0.7% and 0.8%). In five years’ time, they expect a rate of change of 0.8% (June: 0.9%). The outlook for the Swiss labour market remains virtually unchanged. The unemployment rate is again expected to reach 3.1% for the current year, 3.0% for 2027 and 2.9% in five years’ time.
Financial markets
Survey respondents expect the short-term interest rate to fall in the coming months (note: the survey ended before the SNB’s interest rate decision). For the three-month period, the average response is 0.03%. The average expected value of the SARON in twelve months’ time is 0.23%; accordingly, a majority of the economic experts surveyed expect an interest rate move within a year. As regards the yield on a 10-year Swiss Confederation bond, economists expect a figure of 0.51% in three months’ time and 0.57% in one year’s time.
| Financial market indicators | in 3 months | in 12 months | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/2026 | 09/2026 | 06/2026 | 09/2026 | |
| SARON | -0.02 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.23 |
| Yield on 10-Year Swiss Confederation Bonds | 0.44 | 0.51 | 0.53 | 0.57 |
| CHF / EUR | 0.91 | 0.93 | 0.90 | 0.92 |
| CHF / USD | 0.78 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.80 |
| SPI | 19 351 | 19 725 | 20 093 | 20 633 |
According to the Consensus Forecast, the exchange rate of the Swiss franc against the euro, which has risen over the past two months, is likely to remain roughly at this level in the coming months. The forecast figures stand at 0.93 CHF/EUR for a three-month horizon and 0.92 CHF/EUR for a twelve-month horizon. A slight decline is expected in the Swiss franc’s exchange rate against the US dollar. On average, the experts forecast an exchange rate of 0.81 CHF/USD for three months and 0.80 CHF/USD for twelve months from now.
Compared with the results of the previous survey in June 2026, respondents to this survey wave are more cautious in their assessment of the short-term outlook for the Swiss stock market. Forecasters expect the Swiss Performance Index (SPI) to stand at around 19’725 points in three months’ time, which is slightly below the current level. In twelve months’ time, the index is expected to stand at 20’633 points, meaning that the SPI is likely to gain significantly in value in the medium term.
Detailed results
| Macroeconomic variables | 2026 | 2027 | in 5 years | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | Median | Standard deviation | Number of responses | Mean | Median | Standard deviation | Number of responses | Mean | Median | Standard deviation | Number of responses | |
| Change in real GDP | 2.1 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 16 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 16 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 15 |
| Change in real GDP (sport event adjusted) | 1.7 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 15 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 15 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 15 |
| Change in real equipment investment | 1.2 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 13 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 13 | ||||
| Change in real construction investment | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 11 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 11 | ||||
| Change in real exports | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 13 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 13 | ||||
| Change in consumer prices | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 16 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 16 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 14 |
| Unemployment rate | 3.1 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 16 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.1 | 15 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 13 |
Veränderung gegenüber Vorjahr in Prozent (ausser Arbeitslosenquote)
| Financial market indicators | in 3 months | in 12 months | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | Median | Standard deviation | Number of responses | Mean | Median | Standard deviation | Number of responses | |
| SARON | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 15 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 15 |
| Yield on 10-Year Swiss Confederation Bonds | 0.51 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 15 | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 15 |
| CHF / EUR | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.01 | 14 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.02 | 14 |
| CHF / USD | 0.81 | 0.80 | 0.01 | 14 | 0.80 | 0.79 | 0.02 | 14 |
| SPI | 19 725 | 19 700 | 1 018 | 9 | 20 633 | 20 200 | 1 301 | 9 |
Participants
Seventeen economists participated in the KOF Institute’s 123rd Consensus Forecast. The survey was conducted from 3 to 23 September 2026. Participants report their forecasts for the years 2026, 2027, and 2031 regarding macroeconomic variables (GDP growth (both adjusted and unadjusted for sporting events), construction and equipment investment, exports, price levels, and unemployment rate) as well as financial market indicators (short- and long-term interest rates, exchange rates, and stock market performance). The Consensus Forecast is derived from the averaged responses. The Consensus Forecast draws on the expertise of economists from the business sector, government, and academia to forecast economic developments. The expert survey should not be confused with the KOF Institute’s economic forecast. The KOF Institute publishes its next economic forecast on 30 September 2026.
Economists from the following institutions participated in the 123rd Consensus:
| Aargauische Kantonalbank | ODDO BHF |
| BAK Economics | Pictet |
| Bank J. Safra Sarasin | Schweizerischer Gewerkschaftsbund SGB |
| Bank Julius Bär & Co. | Staatssekretariat für Wirtschaft SECO |
| Banque Lombard Odier & Cie | Swiss Life |
| Fitch Ratings | Swiss Textiles |
| International Monetary Fund IMF | Wüest Partner |
| KOF Swiss Economic Institute ETH Zürich | Zürcher Kantonalbank |
| Luzerner Kantonalbank |
For further information on the KOF Consensus Forecast, please visit the KOF Consensus Forecast website.
Official release: KOF Swiss Economic Institute.